Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Gator328]

I don't think it's mystifying there hasn't been a run-up. Run-ups occur when there's a significant transfer of interest from the current owners to new owners. Existing retail holders aren't going to average up significantly enough to move the price. Commercial buyers are going to wait until the investment is completely de-risked before jumping in fully, so there's a stagnant gap that will only be filled with positive top-line data.

Meanwhile, deep in the back of everyone's mind there exists the possibility of another P3 trial. Whether the notion is the product of reality or the product of short sellers stoking fear is irrelevant.

Investors were also burned by similar run-ups in other companies last summer. The economy is in a much different place today, as is the stock market. Conditions that existed then are no more and run-ups across every sector have become fewer and further between.

Wait until the top-line data is revealed. Most of us should be able to infer Anavex's next step based the results and if it appears an FDA submission is imminent, I think you'll see the run-up begin then.