Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[sokol]

MacFarlane believes that the realistic expectation for AD drug development is to slow the progression of the disease because by the time it becomes known that one has AD irreparable damage has been done to cells. He believes that going forward AD drug development will replicate what we have seen in the treatment of cancer. His opinion is that the most effective treatment for the disease may be a combination of drugs as in the treatment of cancer. Interestingly, he comments that placebo patients in AD trials do better because they receive better treatment and follow up. The latter makes sense because AD trials last years. If you are conducting three years of phases of a clinical trial of a drug you want to keep the participants around to complete the trial phases. The source for the foregoing is a MacFarlane interview in October 2021. Here is the link: https://www.dementiapodcast.com/1268711/9325388

Therefore, if the AVXL 2-73 data we are waiting for shows that the in treated patients AD was slowed significantly, success has been achieved. It may also be that those patients on the placebo did better than AD patients in general, which is what I think past phases of AVXL 2-73’s trials have shown. Of course, data needs to show that treated patients did much better than those on the placebo, but we should not be thrown for a loop just because placebo patients in the trial did better than AD patients in general.

Having said all of the above, we may need to adjust our expectations for whatever it is that Anavex has to report in December if not before. Some patients may likely do better or worse, depending on how long participants have had the disease and the degree of cell damage each patient has incurred. And, some patients may do better or worse depending on gene type or various other factors.

No two individuals in this or any clinical trial are identical depending on duration of the disease, genetic make up, age, health in general, care, mental attitude, etc.

It should be evident that analyzing any AD clinical trial results is highly complex. There is a lot to consider and to explain, including without limitation, why some placebo patients may have performed well compared to those administered the actual drug.

In any event, no one should expect that this or any drug will reverse severe cell damage. The data will not prove that AVXL 2-73 will reverse all aspects of this awful disease, but significantly slowing the progression of the disease is a win, which is what I hope is the case.

Lastly, if it is true that AVXL 2-73, or any other drug, significantly slows the progression of the disease, it may be that this drug or drugs will be prescribed early on to patients that are prone to the disease following the example of what cardiologist have done in prescribing statins to patients believed to be prone to heart disease.