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Saturday, October 22, 2022 6:49:08 AM
I'm happy that the prior resistance level right below the 11 area held since it was resistance on the way up, but that extremely difficult level of 13 to 13.50 has proven to be super difficult, so I understood that level as a poor level to even consider buying there. $13.50 remains the Berlin Wall.
Here's my simple and visible supports: our pullback low to the 200 day held, (around 11), the next lower level would be the 50 day levels & also prior support at 10.25 where a minor double bottom occurred ; then comes the next double bottom around 9.00 where a confirmed double bottom occurred, but below the 50 day.
Finally, I see and have mentioned the major double bottom was hit at $7.50 and shows up on the weekly charts as most important since it came across the 200 WEEKLY SMA...that, I believe, formed the bottom for the year.
Note the common theme: double bottoms occurring in AVXL
With the resistance above so near, it seems best to stand back and wait for confirmation. I'd rather watch than make any moves right here. I believe we'll need to see $13.50 broken cleanly and with volume...that's what I consider "a trigger point".
I often mention: plus or minus which I learned so many years ago from my mentor as a young guy (25) in commodities....fake outs and shake outs are common
I think many here are awaiting the key to the treasure box and that along with the message board hype is worrisome.
Also, I am familiar with commodities in general and believe our risk is more towards DEFLATION albeit supply issues in oil, gas, etc. are out of whack...I mentioned several months ago that Gold and Silver have been terrible as indicators for quite some years and can't break above $1800 or $20 respectively....Notice the sharp drop back on most, like Lumber, Wheat, Corn, etc.
Cheers........Steve
https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=AVXL&ty=c&ta=1&p=d
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