Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[Tatsumaki]

Amarin today is essentially operating as another generic in the US market. They're maintaining market share only through price concessions vs. generics and that is cutting into their margins each quarter. Single drug Amarin has 0 hope of competing with large generics in the US in the long haul. They simply cant, they dont have the portfolio. They cant distribute their overhead across that portfolio. They cant negotiate with a PBM across an entire portfolio of drugs as a whole.

They're heavy on inventory and cutting down to minimum API purchases. You think the API makers are just going to table production? No, they're going to sell it somewhere else, and that's generics.

Amarin has over 400 million shares. Even if they do end up turning profits on 60,000 Rx a week, it'll be pennies a share with no hope in the US of increasing that EPS. As an investor, I say who cares about a few pennies? Few are sitting on enough shares for it to make much of an impact.

So one insurer has a deal with Amarin. That's nice. Teva comes along and undercuts Amarins price. What then? Amarin either matches or loses it. That's what'll happen next negotiation cycle.

The US is in a death spiral in the US. Unless they come up with something new to offer the market. So Im back to my statement... Amarin better get off the stick on EU sales quick.