Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[studythosestocks]

I just wanted to personally thank you (along with many others here as well) for posting these numbers weekly. I rely on them heavily to get a feel for what is happening in the US with sales. There is no way I would have a "bearing" on AMRN's situation if you didn't take time out each week and post them. There are many others here which I am grateful to as well. Too many to list right now but each person seems to have their area of expertise or connection which they freely share on this board. I have learned much from each of you.
Now comments to the entire AMRN board. KM has shared that we have maintained scripts to a large extent over the past 12-13 weeks. I know it is discouraging seeing the generics increase script totals weekly but that is the reality which I don't see changing in the future. Hopefully we will maintain our 40% on commercial plans where we have locked in new agreements to use Brand. When we have to renegotiate with them, I'm afraid we may have to take another hair cut with them to keep the "promise". We've got to maintain scripts above 60K average weekly IMO (figuring we can keep the price constant). KM has shared that there is no guarantees in this with possible issues being introduction of a 4th generic or lack of being able to renegotiate with the major commercial healthcare providers. I believe we can do but the share price shows the market investors don't believe we can launch in Europe on the backs of our US scripts without dilution, cap raise, debt installment, etc.
I don't see any miracles in the US in the near term unfortunately. It's a dead market as far as growth goes. It's a matter of trying to maintain script deterioration from the parasites as long as possible with the hopes that our "savings account" doesn't disappear before we can be cash flow positive in European sales.
I'm so frustated that we haven't had another final big 5 reimbursement decision. Like everything Amarin the bad news and timing just keep on coming with them negotiating these agreements in one of the worst recessionary climates in many years. This probably means the agreed upon prices from here on will be at least a 15% haircut to the UK. I can live with this as long as we can keep the European market potential peaking at over a billion. It can be done and isn't impossible but itwill be a very hard climb. I personally see management doing a very good job in such a hopeless situation in maintaining scripts in the US and not giving V away to the larger countries. I am not relying on China approval this year. I do believe that we get regulatory approval in at least 4 countries outside of EU before the end of the year and I am hopeful that KM's comments that it will be 6 is accurate. Right now I don't have any reason to disregard his comments. Love him or hate him, KM has been honest, open and upfront and transparent IMO with his comments. He's mentioned that agreements with manufacturers are ongoing and if they go well, this will also pay dividends in the close of this year and into 2023 with inventory commitments being lowered even more than already agreed upon.
I look forward to the Respect results. I truly believe that the results will be stat significant. I not expecting the results lifting our SP 30% overnight but it will give us more security in the science and will help us in our EU negotiations and fewer naysayers even though haters are going to hate regardless of test results. Like I said before, it is harder to convince a person they have been fooled and lied to than to have them believe a lie.
I don't think our stock has hit its lowest point. The markets right now are brutal. They are a forward looking indicator however so once a recession has priced in, it may be the last chance to buy AMRN sub $1. If they can show promise in negotiations with least one more big 5 and maintain US script numbers, I can't think from an investment standpoint that it would be a better time to jump in or cost average down if you are a believer. I still feel that EU/UK can peak around 1B if negotiations prove such. 3X Peak Sales puts us at 3B/roughly 500m shares puts at a low end of $6/share not including any value in the US or ROW. Very simple calculation but with a successful roll out in EU, I think this number is very doable and possibly even low. All just my thoughts and just waiting (hoping) to be right for once.