In the short term the sentiment is 100% directed to getting Foundry PDK news from the company.
With each passing day some think the odds are increasing for really fantastic news, but the share price and volume doesn't reflect this ongoing enthusiasm. Usually there is excitement reflected in the share price from ECOC, other conferences, and company news. But since the market wants to know WHO Lightwave is working with and WHAT PDKs are ready for commercialization to begin, the response to things that normally boost the price just isn't there. It's not because of shorting: It's because the market isn't getting any positive surprises, and not enough new money expects any. Another part of this is the uncertainty of 'when' -- in the very short term -- the period of time daily trades are determined -- there is little expectation of the big news hitting.
With each passing day, this focus on 'not getting a positive surprise' weighs on the stock. Add to that any continuing deterioration in the stock market in general, and the effect is compounded. This is why the stock has gone down significantly in the last several weeks...
Gloom tends to feed off itself, but there will always be bottom feeders and technical players looking for a bounce But the trend is down until the news hits IMO. As 12/31 approaches the stakes of missing the timeline become more worrisome.
Why? The company trades at a current $800 million valuation without the financial strength nor the financial pathway to support even a $20 million valuation. And Lightwave has been working with multiple foundries for at least 16 months now, far exceeding the time period of 6-9 months for a PDK to be produced. It's late for SOME reason in all of the foundries they are working with and none of us know why. IF there is NO NEWS, or IF the news is disappointing and vague, the possibility of a collapse is very real.
$200 million of short money is betting against the company. Whether that is dumb money or smart money (logic says it is a combination), influential shorts are likely to make sure they benefit greatly when there is any kind of disappointment - and the company has set themselves up for a doozy of a disappointment.
If the company doesn't say anything helpful in the coming months angst will grow and we likely will see 52 week lows, including flirting with, or breaking through the $5 barrier -- we may well see a 'hit' piece to help that along. And if the news that does come is vague at best, there will be a drift downward over all of 2023 toward $1.
I think some kind of news will hit -- maybe even a PDK. But the devil will be in the details. It will be interesting to see how much is actually revealed at that time and how the price responds.
My philosophy is to just be honest and balanced, and let the market decide if it agrees or not.
