NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[no2koolaid]

Just so we are clear, there are five elements used for DCF analysis (independent variables). Earnings per share, which NWBO does not have. Annual earnings growth rate, which NWBO does not have. The expected time frame for that growth to occur, again, something NWBO does not have. The period of time beyond that and the expected rate that is a prospective view that is generally the most difficult if not contentious of the variables. It is with that I did the DCF and used Keytruda's actual revenues...and here is the BIG thing...I used them as if a single company's revenues. Where the disconnect comes is in not understanding that distinction.

SO, IFF (a math term), a DCF was done on Merck today, it would take into consideration the full growth picture of Merck and, since it is about revenue growth percentages not dollars, Merck's share price numbers would be very different, in no small part because the calculation begins with its earnings per share, a known data point.

OBTW: the fifth piece on the DCF is the discount rate. Generally it falls between 10-11% (most "hand" calculations use 10%). And here is where it gets confusing, the "trick" in plugging in the numbers is that the growth rate percentage cannot exceed the discount rate.

With that, I am on this board to learn and inform where possible, not improve analytical abilities. That I get paid to do. Rather, I did this specific analysis for free because I tire of anecdotal analogies that inferred, implied or suggested NWBOs value based on something tied to another company. It is also why I provided the template, open kimono!