I actually think there is a possibility of the stock getting to $0.40
That would be a $476,000,000 market cap that is obtainable a number of different ways to me but obviously not today and some things need to happen.
1. Provista Revenue - IF they can get to a fully loaded 175,000 test a week, just using a super conservative reimbursement cost of $100 per test would bring in $17.5M of revenue a week. That's $910M a year using 'simple math'.
A couple of other factors. They could double capacity if they need to. Also anything but the PCR Covid test would be higher than $100. I think GC may have given a cost on one of the other tests. I forget if it was $800.
2. Long Covid - Get the trials going and if Tollovid/r shows the same success they are seeing in the case studies, and I think the stock is an instant $500M market cap or higher
3. Tollovir - Get the Phase II extension going for hospitalized patients. Doesn't have to finish for shareholders to know the results since it's open label and data will flow throughout the trial. Show success and a $500M market cap or higher. Get an EUA, $1B+ Cap.
4. Tollovid - I think at some point this could go viral. We know it works. The issue is the whole world doesn't know about it yet, harder to buy outside of US and perception of it being expensive even though much cheaper than an ER visit or having Long Covid and can't work.
Sales would have to be pretty high to justify a $500M cap, but not that high if it goes Viral and people start thinking, finally a solution for Covid and no one else and anything except Pfizer that sort of works for some people.
So there are 4 scenarios where any one could fetch a $500M cap or higher. Certainly risk there as well. What I've been doing is not looking at them individually but as a whole. What if in the short-term (Q4) progress is make in each of these area and each contribute to getting to $500M cap?
btw, I really like #1. I think the revenue Provista will generate in Q4 and Q1 isn't even on anyone's radar.
My take is the BOD, GC and the leadership team knows how successful these scenarios can/will be which is why they are preparing for an uplist. Obviously if none of these happen DON"T UPLIST.
