Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[10nisman]

Increasing the Fed Funds rate to 3.5% would make things seem pretty normal to me, suggesting inflation of 5.5% - for the net 2% rate the Fed prefers.
As leading inflation declines below 5.5% there would be room to cut the Fed rate.

The Fed will not be cutting rates anytime soon... Maybe in late 2023 or early 2024. The Fed Fund rate is going to at least 4% and if inflation continues to remain at or near current levels they'll be moving rates to 5.5+%. This is anything but normal... And current valuations haven't priced in the likely economic / earnings recession that will play out in 2023.