Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[Elroy Jetson]

China’s ambition to become the world’s largest economy is quickly slipping out of reach


Today every 100 working-age Chinese need to support 20 retirees.

If current Chinese demographic trends continue, by the turn of the next century, every 100 workers will have to support 120 retirees.


China’s population growth has declined 94 percent, from 8 million in 2011 to 480,000 last year - down from nearly a billion currently.

The 10.6 million Chinese babies born in 2021 were 1.4 million fewer than in 2020. This is a lower birth rate than during China's great famine of the 1950s.

As a result the projection of China’s 15- to 64-year-old population in 2100 has been revised from 579 million to 378 million.

In spite of State awards given for those having more children, when the nation's wealth is spread a sparingly as it is in China and Russia, people don't want to have a lot of children.


Russia has become more irrationally dangerous as demographic trends have guided their nation to a greatly reduced economy with far less per-capita wealth.

China too is most likely to continue their increasing aggression toward other members of the global economy and especially its neighboring countries as their internal aspirations diminish.

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-07-18/china-s-working-population-is-about-to-get-much-smaller#xj4y7vzkg