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Thursday, August 11, 2022 8:11:59 AM
Dr. Joong J Fang Said; Burn Baby Burn. Lollipops
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bearish-analysts-just-cut-charlottes-102342417.html
“Market forces rained on the parade of Charlotte's Web Holdings, Inc. (TSE:CWEB) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. Both revenue and earnings per share (EPS) estimates were cut sharply as the analysts factored in the latest outlook for the business, concluding that they were too optimistic previously.
Following the downgrade, the consensus from six analysts covering Charlotte's Web Holdings is for revenues of US$82m in 2022, implying a perceptible 5.5% decline in sales compared to the last 12 months. The loss per share is anticipated to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 81% to US$0.18. However, before this estimates update, the consensus had been expecting revenues of US$96m and US$0.15 per share in losses. So there's been quite a change-up of views after the recent consensus updates, with the analysts making a serious cut to their revenue forecasts while also expecting losses per share to increase.
Analysts lifted their price target 35% to US$1.55, implicitly signalling that lower earnings per share are not expected to have a longer-term impact on the stock's value. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Charlotte's Web Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at US$2.00 and the most bearish at US$0.70 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that the analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.
These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Charlotte's Web Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 11% by the end of 2022. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 0.9% over the last three years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 23% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Charlotte's Web Holdings is expected to lag the wider industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing to take away is that analysts increased their loss per share estimates for this year. Regrettably, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and the latest forecasts imply the business will grow sales slower than the wider market. The rising price target is a puzzle, but still - with a serious cut to this year's outlook, we wouldn't be surprised if investors were a bit wary of Charlotte's Web Holdings.”
With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year.
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