Mohacsy's Safe Portfolio Member Forum

[10nisman]

That we are not now in a recession is magical thinking. Every recession outlined in every Federal Reserve chart shows recessions marked in grey after two consecutive quarters of GDP decline. It's possible there will be another recession in 2023 but that would be a double recession as we had in 1980-1982.

There was no recession in 1947 after two negative GDP quarters and if you look at NBER's parameters the U.S. is definitely not in recession. If you listen to conference calls / talk to Management teams from small-cap to large cap businesses --- the vast majority are saying we are definitely not in recession. There are obviously sectors getting hit / starting to get hit, however, this is always the case.

It's the bottom of the second and these games always end with fireworks. Fed Fund rates at 4% should start to break things, however, fears of restoking inflation will keep rates higher for longer. Fun times ahead for sure...