Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[growingpain]

Doc, it is clear to me that they did not release this continuation of attention for PDD and the original endpoint (RSBQ raw change) for Rett because they were not met in a statistically significant manner. Otherwise, we would have heard of both by this point.

The reason I continue being long is that I believe the reason behind a pval>5% is the small sample and not that the drug does not work. Statistically significant or not, all the data we have seen collectively indicate that 2-73 is better than the standard of care, at least for Rett and PDD.

IMO, Missling messed it up by going small. He might have thought that the effect would be so large that the small sample does not matter. He even defended this point in a couple of calls. I think he finally realised that he needs larger cohorts and this is the true reason behind expanding the Excellence trial.

The two upcoming readouts will be the endgame for 2-73 IMO. Both samples are of a good size to show whether 2-73 will be eventually approved or not. For Rett, I strongly expect approval. For AD, I expect to see some efficacy for the high-dose cohort and then a P3 or P4 trial to confirm that. Just my two cents.