VirTra Inc (VTSI)

[sharpchicity]

My thoughts for the next few weeks of earnings:

i had Q4 revs on the upper end of $5-7m. I’ll put Q1'22 at $8m and Q2 @ $6m revenues. There's also $3m of IVAS money from STP4 that probably flows through in one of these three quarters, but who knows with the delays that have occurred in that program.

Re: bookings— They already announced the $8.2m q4 bookings. I expect a good Q1 number as well fueled by their announced $2.7m international orders; I'm hoping somewhere around $7m. Q2 I have no idea as there's been scant news in the quarter; I'm hoping we stay above the $4m non-government/military threshold, but I woulnd't be shocked if it were lower. (IMO there's a small chance the $2.7m international orders announced on Jan 10 were actually received and booked in Q4 which would significantly lower the Q1 number)

for STEP, Q4 numbers i imagine will be somewhere around $600k. I wouldn't be shocked to see > $750k by Q2, but i'd think STEP is more likely to scale linearly @ 5-10 incremental customers per quarter rather than exponentially. Let's see if Bob makes any mention of % of customers ordering STEP vs upfront payments.

I think there's some one off OPEX or CAPEX in Q4 due to company bonuses and the new building . I'm going to estimate $3m/q as a baseline OPEX going forward (up from $2.6, $2.3, and $2.0 the previous three quarters) due to auditor changes, any staffing / hirings / overtime needed due to late filings, and SVT / IVAS demos were likely happening in Q1/Q2, so higher travel costs may add up.

Not going to guess on margins. I imagine we're much closer to 60% than the 50% from Q3, but I don't have a good feel for why this metric

Will be interesting to watch inventory and Machinery/Equipment line items. With IVAS delayed in October '21, I was hoping we see this level off, but the $2m decrease in cash balance at end of year means they're spending somewhere, so hopes it’s for growth rather than building expenses.