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Wednesday, July 20, 2022 8:06:02 AM
2022 Transceiver TAM is about $20 Billion
per Lebby, the Modulator can range from 20-30% (low) to 80-90% (high) of the Transceiver BOM and LWLG is SO HUGELY DISRUPTIVE it would be priced close to high end of that range
Ok, so let's be super conservative despite the FACT that LWLG's technology is TONS THE BEST of anything out there it should logically get about 99% of the market!! So, let's just say 50% of Transceiver Market 2022 at $20 Billion and use 70% for the LWLG Modulator, so the simple math and LWLG Revenue is CONSERVATIVELY at $7 Billion
So with LWLG's TEEENY TINY cost structure and 110 million O/S shares the PPS number would conservatively be a MIND BOGGLINGLY HIGH NUMBER
Investors need to understand that LWLG's product cost will be a TINY fraction of the REVENUE, a couple of ounces of LWLG's secret sauce can create 10's of thousands of devices!!
Here are some quick calculations to give you a better idea of how crazy high the PPS could go!
Every $500MM in revenue is $68/share assuming 30% net profit margin and 50 PE ($150MM net income divided by 110MM shares outstanding = $1.36/share x 50 PE).
It is all about the revenue ramp. So $100/share would equate to about $750MM in revenue in 2025. Personally, with 2 foundries producing 24+ months and other 3 foundries in production at least for 12+ months by 2025 (and ubiquity confirmed in a $30B-$50B target market), I would expect revenue in 2025 to be much much higher.
This is why revenue guidance will be so critical once foundry deals are announced.
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