Sunday, July 17, 2022 9:29:05 PM
A look at the fibs. Always intrigued how the calculations line up with occurrence's both in nature and in the stock market over time. When I posted a chart recently in discussion with santafe2 where for curiosity I ran the fib from the low of the last recession spanning about 15 yrs on a monthly chart. Plus some standard SMAs 9, 20, 50, 100, and 200 periods and few other studies which I will repost.
Then there is the fib from the Covid lows inserted on a weekly chart and then the daily closer views of the same. I think definitely we have some areas of interest and matching points on the charts. Given everything that is occurring, I believe we still have more downside risk than not other than a short bear market rally that might happen. Playing by ear daily I think is about all we've got to be sure on.
But as the market does, attention to sentiment is given, and there is is 50/50 bull/bear sentiment. This leaves a lot holding onto their capitol, looking for a lower bottom or just plain waiting to see how it goes or just play the bear rally presumed by any bearish outlook. This creates the situation for a flush to satisfy the bears need to see a lower bottom and put some capitol in and of course the market will take the bulls money if and when this happens. That's if it is somewhat of a bottom, if not then the market will just continue it's trend downward on it's own longer term.
Going to the shorter term fib (yellow) 50% line is not a stretch at all and seems pretty reasonable place to touch in the short term with the market conditions currently. If some forceful events happen in the future (war, inflation still heated, climate occurrences), then lower points could be in store. The best I think we could see is flat in a channel for a bit with opportunity to do some profitable trades.
Anyway, just something to look at and watch, or not.
Then there is the fib from the Covid lows inserted on a weekly chart and then the daily closer views of the same. I think definitely we have some areas of interest and matching points on the charts. Given everything that is occurring, I believe we still have more downside risk than not other than a short bear market rally that might happen. Playing by ear daily I think is about all we've got to be sure on.
But as the market does, attention to sentiment is given, and there is is 50/50 bull/bear sentiment. This leaves a lot holding onto their capitol, looking for a lower bottom or just plain waiting to see how it goes or just play the bear rally presumed by any bearish outlook. This creates the situation for a flush to satisfy the bears need to see a lower bottom and put some capitol in and of course the market will take the bulls money if and when this happens. That's if it is somewhat of a bottom, if not then the market will just continue it's trend downward on it's own longer term.
Going to the shorter term fib (yellow) 50% line is not a stretch at all and seems pretty reasonable place to touch in the short term with the market conditions currently. If some forceful events happen in the future (war, inflation still heated, climate occurrences), then lower points could be in store. The best I think we could see is flat in a channel for a bit with opportunity to do some profitable trades.
Anyway, just something to look at and watch, or not.
Russian Polling
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