Sunday, July 17, 2022 12:24:53 PM
We are a global economy, and no matter how anyone wanting to live in the fantasy that we're not or that everything under the sun revolves around the US is just that, fantasy and an expensive waste of focus. If one thinks the oil cartels (foreign or domestic) , when given free reign to annihilate a country and its' population or pump and increase production with no environmental or safety conditions or any thought to the costs of the environmental damage, that they are just going to give all of that supply on the cheap when they can get so much more elsewhere for that supply, is just senseless stupidity. That would be like the fossil fuel companies buying the politicians and judges to do their bidding and sellers paying the fees on Ebay or auction houses not taking the highest bid and giving it to the lowest bid buyer. Not going to ever happen no matter which party is in control.
On that note, if anyone is following the global shipping industry and the dramatic changes in geopolitical and geoeconomics that are currently happening and how that will relate to costs to consumer, certain stocks, or US economy, here's some news on that front.
Tanker Market in Recovery Mode
in Hellenic Shipping News 16/07/2022
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/tanker-market-in-recovery-mode/
The tanker market has entered into recovery mode during the month of June. In its latest monthly report, OPEC said that dirty tanker spot freight rates in June recovered some of the losses seen the previous month. The tanker market continued to improve following the poor performance in 2021, although gains varied across sectors. Suezmax and Aframax markets have benefited from the rerouting of longstanding trade patterns, resulting in longer voyages. Suezmax rates rose 20% m-o-m, while Aframax rates increased 11% m-o-m on average. VLCCs have seen less momentum from these shifts, with lower flows on longer haul routes such as from the Americas to Asia. As a result, VLCC rates remained at comparatively soft levels, up 8% on average, with gains were seen both East and West of Suez. Product trade flows have continued to strengthen, amid a shift to longer haul routes due to trade dislocations and refinery capacity expansions in export regions. Clean rates were up 21% m-o-m on average.
Spot fixtures
The latest estimates show global spot fixtures declined in June, averaging 13.0 mb/d. Fixtures fell 1.8 mb/d, or around 13% m-o-m. Compared with the previous year, spot fixtures were down 2.5 mb/d, or about 16%. OPEC spot fixtures slipped m-o-m in June, averaging 9.1 mb/d. This represented a drop of 13%, or 1.3 mb/d. In comparison with the same month in 2021, they were about 0.3 mb/d, or 4%, lower. Middle East-to-East fixtures fell 1.2 mb/d, or 19%, to average 4.9 mb/d. Compared with the same month last year, eastward flows declined 0.3 mb/d, or almost 6%. In contrast, spot fixtures from the Middle East-to-West fell m-o-m by around 0.1 mb/d, or 8%, in June, to average 1.5 mb/d. Y-o-y, rates were 0.4 mb/d, or 37%, higher. Outside the Middle East, fixtures averaged 2.7 mb/d in June. This represents a marginal m-o-m decline of about 2%, and a decline of 0.4 mb/d, or 14%, y-o-y.
Sailings and arrivals
OPEC sailings increased m-o-m by 0.1 mb/d, or less than 1%, in June to average 22.6 mb/d. OPEC sailings were 0.9 mb/d, or 4%, higher compared with the same month a year ago. Middle East sailings edged down by 0.1 mb/d in June to average 17.0 mb/d. Y-o-y, sailings from the region rose 1.7 mb/d, or around 11%, compared with June 2021. Crude arrivals in June saw m-o-m gains across all regions except West Asia.
Arrivals in the Far East increased m-o-m by 0.5 mb/d, or about 4%, to average 14.4 mb/d. Y-o-y, arrivals were almost 1.0 mb/d, or about 7%, higher. Arrivals were marginally lower m-o-m in West Asia, edging down 1% in June to average 8.2 mb/d, representing a y-o-y increase of 2.1 mb/d, or 35%.
Meanwhile, arrivals in North America increased by 0.4 mb/d or 4% to average 9.1 mb/d, representing a y-o-y rise of 0.2 mb/d, or about 2%. European arrivals rose m-o-m by 0.2 mb/d, or about 2%, to average 13.7 mb/d. This was 0.9 mb/d, or about 7%, higher than in the same month last year.
Dirty tanker freight rates
Very large crude carriers (VLCCs)
VLCC spot rates recovered some of the previous month’s losses and were up 8% on average m-o-m. The sector has seen less momentum from recent trade dislocations, amid lower flows on longer haul routes such as from the Americas to Asia. Y-o-y, VLCC rates were up 43% on average. On the Middle East-to-East route, rates increased 10% m-o-m to average WS46 points and were 44% higher y-o-y. Rates on the Middle East-to-West route rose 8% m-o-m to average WS27 points. Y-o-y, rates on the route increased 29%. West Africa-to-East spot rates gained 9% m-o-m to average WS48 in June. Compared with the same month last year, rates were 45% higher.
Suezmax
Suezmax rates also recovered some of the previous month’s losses in June, increasing 20% m-o-m. Rates were supported by ongoing trade dislocations which have boosted demand for longer haul voyages. These include higher Russian flows to Asia and increased European imports from the Middle East and the Americas, as well as West Africa. Y-o-y, rates were almost 130% higher. Rates on the West Africa-to-US Gulf Coast (USGC) route increased by 23% m-o-m in June to average WS102. Compared with the same month last year, rates were 127% higher. Spot freight rates on the USGC-to-Europe route rose 17% over the previous month to average WS91 points. Y-o-y, rates were 133% higher.
Aframax
Aframax spot freight rates also gained back some of the previous month’s losses, which had been driven by disruptions in North African flows. On average, spot Aframax rates rose 11% m-o-m. Compared with the same month last year, rates were 100% higher. Rates on the Indonesia-to-East route built on the previous month’s gains, rising 1% m-o-m to average WS173. Y-o-y, rates on the route were up 111%. Spot rates on the Caribbean-to-US East Coast (USEC) route rose 6% m-o-m to average WS172. Y-o-y, rates were 112% higher
Cross-Med spot freight rates saw an increase in June, up 22% m-o-m to average WS169. Y-o-y, rates were 86% higher. On the Mediterranean-to-NWE route, rates rose 17% m-o-m to average WS158. Compared with the same month last year, rates were around 90% higher on both routes.
Clean tanker freight rates
Clean spot freight rates continued to show robust gains across all monitored routes, supported by trade dislocations which have boosted demand for longer haul routes particularly towards Europe. On average, rates increased 21% m-o-m in June and were up by 235% compared with the levels seen in the same month last year. Gains were seen on both sides of the Suez, amid the continuation of a globally tight product balance.
Rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose a further 4% m-o-m in June, building on the strong gains of recent months, to average WS310. Y-o-y, rates are up 248%. Freight rates on the Singapore-to-East route gained 23% m-o-m to average WS414 and were 211% higher compared with the same month last year. In the West of Suez market, rates on the Northwest Europe (NWE)-to-USEC route rose 9% m-o-m to average WS359 points. They were 209% higher y-o-y. Rates in the Cross-Med and Med-to-NWE saw gains of 34% each to average WS467 and WS477 points, respectively. Compared with the same month last year, rates were 259% higher Cross-Med and up 241% on the Med-to-NWE route.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
On that note, if anyone is following the global shipping industry and the dramatic changes in geopolitical and geoeconomics that are currently happening and how that will relate to costs to consumer, certain stocks, or US economy, here's some news on that front.
Tanker Market in Recovery Mode
in Hellenic Shipping News 16/07/2022
https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com/tanker-market-in-recovery-mode/
The tanker market has entered into recovery mode during the month of June. In its latest monthly report, OPEC said that dirty tanker spot freight rates in June recovered some of the losses seen the previous month. The tanker market continued to improve following the poor performance in 2021, although gains varied across sectors. Suezmax and Aframax markets have benefited from the rerouting of longstanding trade patterns, resulting in longer voyages. Suezmax rates rose 20% m-o-m, while Aframax rates increased 11% m-o-m on average. VLCCs have seen less momentum from these shifts, with lower flows on longer haul routes such as from the Americas to Asia. As a result, VLCC rates remained at comparatively soft levels, up 8% on average, with gains were seen both East and West of Suez. Product trade flows have continued to strengthen, amid a shift to longer haul routes due to trade dislocations and refinery capacity expansions in export regions. Clean rates were up 21% m-o-m on average.
Spot fixtures
The latest estimates show global spot fixtures declined in June, averaging 13.0 mb/d. Fixtures fell 1.8 mb/d, or around 13% m-o-m. Compared with the previous year, spot fixtures were down 2.5 mb/d, or about 16%. OPEC spot fixtures slipped m-o-m in June, averaging 9.1 mb/d. This represented a drop of 13%, or 1.3 mb/d. In comparison with the same month in 2021, they were about 0.3 mb/d, or 4%, lower. Middle East-to-East fixtures fell 1.2 mb/d, or 19%, to average 4.9 mb/d. Compared with the same month last year, eastward flows declined 0.3 mb/d, or almost 6%. In contrast, spot fixtures from the Middle East-to-West fell m-o-m by around 0.1 mb/d, or 8%, in June, to average 1.5 mb/d. Y-o-y, rates were 0.4 mb/d, or 37%, higher. Outside the Middle East, fixtures averaged 2.7 mb/d in June. This represents a marginal m-o-m decline of about 2%, and a decline of 0.4 mb/d, or 14%, y-o-y.
Sailings and arrivals
OPEC sailings increased m-o-m by 0.1 mb/d, or less than 1%, in June to average 22.6 mb/d. OPEC sailings were 0.9 mb/d, or 4%, higher compared with the same month a year ago. Middle East sailings edged down by 0.1 mb/d in June to average 17.0 mb/d. Y-o-y, sailings from the region rose 1.7 mb/d, or around 11%, compared with June 2021. Crude arrivals in June saw m-o-m gains across all regions except West Asia.
Arrivals in the Far East increased m-o-m by 0.5 mb/d, or about 4%, to average 14.4 mb/d. Y-o-y, arrivals were almost 1.0 mb/d, or about 7%, higher. Arrivals were marginally lower m-o-m in West Asia, edging down 1% in June to average 8.2 mb/d, representing a y-o-y increase of 2.1 mb/d, or 35%.
Meanwhile, arrivals in North America increased by 0.4 mb/d or 4% to average 9.1 mb/d, representing a y-o-y rise of 0.2 mb/d, or about 2%. European arrivals rose m-o-m by 0.2 mb/d, or about 2%, to average 13.7 mb/d. This was 0.9 mb/d, or about 7%, higher than in the same month last year.
Dirty tanker freight rates
Very large crude carriers (VLCCs)
VLCC spot rates recovered some of the previous month’s losses and were up 8% on average m-o-m. The sector has seen less momentum from recent trade dislocations, amid lower flows on longer haul routes such as from the Americas to Asia. Y-o-y, VLCC rates were up 43% on average. On the Middle East-to-East route, rates increased 10% m-o-m to average WS46 points and were 44% higher y-o-y. Rates on the Middle East-to-West route rose 8% m-o-m to average WS27 points. Y-o-y, rates on the route increased 29%. West Africa-to-East spot rates gained 9% m-o-m to average WS48 in June. Compared with the same month last year, rates were 45% higher.
Suezmax
Suezmax rates also recovered some of the previous month’s losses in June, increasing 20% m-o-m. Rates were supported by ongoing trade dislocations which have boosted demand for longer haul voyages. These include higher Russian flows to Asia and increased European imports from the Middle East and the Americas, as well as West Africa. Y-o-y, rates were almost 130% higher. Rates on the West Africa-to-US Gulf Coast (USGC) route increased by 23% m-o-m in June to average WS102. Compared with the same month last year, rates were 127% higher. Spot freight rates on the USGC-to-Europe route rose 17% over the previous month to average WS91 points. Y-o-y, rates were 133% higher.
Aframax
Aframax spot freight rates also gained back some of the previous month’s losses, which had been driven by disruptions in North African flows. On average, spot Aframax rates rose 11% m-o-m. Compared with the same month last year, rates were 100% higher. Rates on the Indonesia-to-East route built on the previous month’s gains, rising 1% m-o-m to average WS173. Y-o-y, rates on the route were up 111%. Spot rates on the Caribbean-to-US East Coast (USEC) route rose 6% m-o-m to average WS172. Y-o-y, rates were 112% higher
Cross-Med spot freight rates saw an increase in June, up 22% m-o-m to average WS169. Y-o-y, rates were 86% higher. On the Mediterranean-to-NWE route, rates rose 17% m-o-m to average WS158. Compared with the same month last year, rates were around 90% higher on both routes.
Clean tanker freight rates
Clean spot freight rates continued to show robust gains across all monitored routes, supported by trade dislocations which have boosted demand for longer haul routes particularly towards Europe. On average, rates increased 21% m-o-m in June and were up by 235% compared with the levels seen in the same month last year. Gains were seen on both sides of the Suez, amid the continuation of a globally tight product balance.
Rates on the Middle East-to-East route rose a further 4% m-o-m in June, building on the strong gains of recent months, to average WS310. Y-o-y, rates are up 248%. Freight rates on the Singapore-to-East route gained 23% m-o-m to average WS414 and were 211% higher compared with the same month last year. In the West of Suez market, rates on the Northwest Europe (NWE)-to-USEC route rose 9% m-o-m to average WS359 points. They were 209% higher y-o-y. Rates in the Cross-Med and Med-to-NWE saw gains of 34% each to average WS467 and WS477 points, respectively. Compared with the same month last year, rates were 259% higher Cross-Med and up 241% on the Med-to-NWE route.
Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide
Russian Polling
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