Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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The Ord Oracle: GDX Update
By: Tim Ord | July 6, 2022

SPX Monitoring Purposes: Long SPX on 5/31/22 at 4151.09.

Monitoring Purposes GOLD: Long GDX on 10/9/20 at 40.78.

Long Term SPX Monitor Purposes: Neutral.



Last week, we said, "'Rare signal generated on GDX. The last time this type of signal was generated was last October low. The signal is the RSI for the Bullish Percent index for the Gold Miners index. When the RSI for the Bullish Percent index falls below 5 (current reading is 4.40), the market was at an intermediate-term low.' This chart is displayed above and updated to current data. We took this indicator back to where it began, which is 2008. There have been eleven signals of this type (not counting the current signal) going back to 2008 and there where one failure in 2013 (middle of a major bear market for Gold and gold stocks), which works out to a 91% success rate. Of the 10 signals that did work out, all had good rallies and some turned into major advances. All major signals are hard to stick with and the current one is no different." Added to the above, the RSI for the Bullish Percent index for the Gold Miner's index stands at 2.23. We added Fibonacci retracements, which GDX stands at 50% and GLD at 38.2%, showing GLD holding up better than GDX. Either this is like 2013 (marked with Fail on chart above) or the market is making a bottom here like the other 91% of the time. At major lows in GDX, there is a "Flush", and maybe that is what is going on here.

Tim Ord,

Editor

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