The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

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Recession already here according to Atlanta fed model...

U.S. Recession Already Six Months Old, Says Fed Model
https://www.forbes.com/sites/simonmoore/2022/07/01/us-recession-already-six-months-old-says-fed-model/?sh=1799c6433628

Q1 2022 GDP growth was negative, suggesting a recession may have started. Now, the Atlanta GDPNow model signals Q2 growth may be negative too. If that forecast holds then the recession that seemed likely on an 18-month view, may be here already.

We won’t see the first estimate of Q2 GDP until July 28. However, computing GDP is hardly a secret. It involves combining different the components of economic activity such as consumer spending, business activity and trade.

Many components of GDP for much of Q2 have already been reported. For example the numbers for two of the three months of Q2, April and May, are largely in the books already and June data is coming in now.

The Atlanta Fed GDPNow model is tracking this data, and it looks bad. At the time of writing, roughly a -1% decline in GDP for Q2 is on the cards. Of course, that forecast may change, but unless some upcoming numbers improve, it may mean that we’re already 6 months into a U.S. recession.