Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[HDGabor]

m- (& rosemountbomber 382130 + 382133)

It's kind of like an authorized gV play, although I was more interested in an authorized generic because it might result in more pharmacies writing it automatically out of reflex.

Meanwhile AgV should not be cheaper than V, usually Ag is cheaper than brand. I think / view as the Co. try to secure as much as possible exclusive deal ... see the reaction by generics to the shrinking market ... if it necessary / helps launch AgV.

my question would be whether those were one-time payments (deals to guarantee exclusive reimbursement) or are they discounts/rebates that will continue into Q2, Q3, etc?

At least the latter - will continue - but more likely both ("signing" / upfront bonus).

If the latter then earnings will not get much better - combined with the fact that scripts are still going down weekly.

(i) discounts/rebates was one effect only (top of lower script#) the whole sale inventory level (WSIL) affected the revenue also. WSs used the Q4 inventory in Q1 (as usual, as in every year) but top of it the WSIL was at the minimum
(ii) The higher discounts/rebates is not a new element, more likely it was introduced in Q2 2021*. It has a big effect for Q1 2022 (vs Q1 2021) but more likely will have a lower effect for Q2 2022 vs Q2 2021 (* Dispensed script was +2% - Q2 vs Q1 2021, but Rebates,Chargebacks and Discounts increased by 17%... and the exclusive deal was 40% by EOY 2021)
(iii) The Q2 2022 Net Revenue depends - mainly - on the WSIL and I expect a higher level than in Q1 ... Net Revenue +20% vs Q1.(My guess: at least $110-115M)

Although I don’t know how soon we see those benefits as I assume there will be costs involved such as severance, etc

The Company expects these actions will reduce operating costs by approximately $100 million over the next 12 months ... app. / avg. $8M per month. Amarin estimates that it will incur approximately $10.0 million in charges and record the charges in the second quarter (make substantially all of the related payments by the end of 2022.) Net effect: $90 million over the next 12 months ... +$10 (or +2) million for Q2. It is top of the $30.0 million marketing cut ... the two (three) together is $120 (100 - 10 + 30) million over the next 12 months ... app. / avg. $10M per month ... could be +/- 0 (or + ) for Q2

Best,
G