Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | July 2, 2022

The NY Gold Futures closing today at 180150 is immediately trading down about 1.48% for the year from last year's settlement of 182860. Caution is now required for this market is starting to suggest it will deline further on a monthly level. Immediately, this market has been rising for this month going into July reflecting that this has been only still a bullish reactionary trend. As we stand right now, this market has made a new low breaking beneath the previous month's low reaching thus far 178340 while it's even trading beneath last month's low of 180250.

Up to now, we still have only a 1 month reaction rally from the low established during May. We must exceed the 3 month mark in order to imply a trend is developing.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2020, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2015. The market is still holding above last year's low but is trading rather weak at this moment. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains in a bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 180610.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of June 13th at 188250, which was up 4 weeks from the low made back during the week of May 16th. We have been generally trading down for the past 2 weeks, which has been a very dramatic move of 5.264% in a stark panic type decline.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of June 13th reaching 188250 failed to exceed the previous high of 200300 made back during the week of April 18th. That rally amounted to only four weeks. Subsequently, the market has breached that low of the week of May 16th but has closed back above it and is holding for now. Right now, the market is below momentum on our weekly models casting a bearish cloud over the price action. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 13 weeks which from a timing perspective warrants concern.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2021. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Critical support still underlies this market at 175200 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Nevertheless, the market is trading below last month's low warning of weakness at this time.

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