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Re: creede post# 634

Thursday, 06/30/2022 10:20:39 AM

Thursday, June 30, 2022 10:20:39 AM

Post# of 864
I kind of thought yesterday might have been a turning point because we tested the old lows on MUCH lighter volume. I don't do much of the technical charting voodoo, but in my own experience, testing old highs or lows on lighter volume can sometimes lead to a turnaround.

Who knows, maybe the price is illogical, or maybe it's perfectly logical. Maybe there's an economic slowdown coming that is of a magnitude we've never seen -- depression level stuff. On the other hand maybe it's just some ESG do-gooder fund has decided they're going to save the earth from their air-conditioned highrise and to do so they needed to sell all their energy stocks by the end of Q2 because they're heroes! Ha. Or maybe some of the big funds have early info that the war is about to end. Or maybe some of the big funds friendly to the govt (and I hope what I'm about to type is sarcasm) have been tipped off that the govt is going to attempt to nationalize the entire energy sector, thus those funds are willing to sell at ANY price to get their money out.

No way to know. Even if my guesses about energy are correct (they may not be), Ben Graham's line of "in the short run the market is a voting machine, but in the long run it's a weighing machine" comes to mind. At the moment, the votes are against us for some reason. I certainly wouldn't have guessed 3 weeks ago that one would have made a killing buying short term Puts on SD.
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