I don't believe $24 billion pricey, but it's not a figure that can be considered by a BP or other buyer until NWBO's market cap is at least $12 billion, and probably higher than that.
As yourself when you believe this is possible? I believe that if NWBO got major media coverage on DCVax-L at this time it's hard to say how high the market cap could go, but $12 billion is not out of the question. Without such coverage, the approval of DCVax-L by one or more regulator could make such a move, when all 4 regulators approve it's certainly more likely. Finally, if it hasn't reached or exceeded $12 billion on the regulatory approvals alone, it certainly will as sales of DCVax-L grow to produce multi-billion dollar revenue, in fact that should take it dramatically over $12 billion and frankly if the company is allowed to reach the point where revenue is into the hundreds of millions, I suspect that shareholders will want more than $24 billion to purchase it.
If you look at it from a timing perspective, I believe when all is known it's possible that we'll get the mass media coverage that could dramatically move the price, so that could happen in a matter of weeks, or months. Once the company speaks out we should learn how close we are to potential regulatory approval, some here believe the U.K. may be just a matter of months away. By next year I believe all four regulators will have approved unless production issues result in delays until the FlaskWorks unit is approved and sufficient units are installed. If all have approved by the end of next year, depending on when in the year they approve, hundreds of millions in sales is certainly possible next years, but almost a certainty by 2023, and it might well go into the billions by then.
As I see it, $24 billion could be a very fair price before the end of this year, by next year if all four regulators approve it would probably be a bargain price. Beyond next year I believe a purchaser will have to pay more than that, or shareholders, if not the board, will turn them down.
Gary
