I maintain an interest in Anavex because the science cannot be excluded. I consider the data with Alzheimers to be weak, which leaves -- practically speaking -- Parkinsons and Retts, where the company and two world class doctors consider it to be good..
Rett's has the most promise, because it is a small indication, and BP probably does not care to stop this indication being approved, provided that results are Steller. Of course there is a competitor which has a huge head start already approved. Still if, in 2 years, Rett is approved, given the side effects of the competitor, I can see the avxl drug getting sales...how long out? 2 years..and remember, once approved there is always a delay of about 6 months for the other bureaucrat agencies to permit the drug to actually be sold....what the share price might be at this future point in time, with an approval for Retts, with the backing of anavex's other ideas, is very hard to say and impossible to say at this point, but if and when the market will.
If Rett is approved in 2 years from now, depending on the effectiveness, I can see some excitement due to other indications......we shall see.
Dr. M has made the wise choice to offer for partnerships the two blockbuster goals in Park and Alz......The latter has results that are underwhelming to date, and in my opinon, from what is now known, is a decidedly inferior drug to SAVA's candidate. People here are not interested in the DATA which was submitted by doctors who filed their own petition seeking immediate approval (a strategy move against the lawyers who had previously filed their own petition asking that the drug be "banned" due to their own strange claims of fabricated data on a tiny slice of findings from something ten years earlier, and their own petition, let us recall, was submitted essentially by a law firm, admitted shorts, i.e. represented by a "short" law firm...a petition like this has never been filed in history before, where a short law firm and some toy soldier petitions, can file some trash to the fda, asking that a drug in trial be "banned," but this could very well be the future for anavex as well. These guys play for keeps, the pathway is full of trearchery and as I have posted before, people will kill you for money there is no doubt..).
Whether SAVA can get their even far more compelling data ever through Big Pharma's FDA is doubtful, no matter how compelling and is years away in any case...so they too, will probably need to seek a BP partnership with PFizer, etc...all of this to take place years from now, in all likelihood.....
but they have two 750 person trials, together with a valuable product line in Alzehimer's identification at very early ages...another possible thing for them....
and all of this brings up the question of whether their drug would be better in other indications, where they have not run trials yet but the bottom line for them, is they are lazer focused with 1500 people now in two alzheimer's trials.........and they have a ceo who despises BP, don't know if that is a good thing or not. I never sense any hostility from Dr. M, he seems poised. Many who coitize the pace of the trials, or the missed deadlines may have a point, but remember, these trials were planned 3 or 4 years ago, and due to the changing body politic of the FDA, and the fluid and ambiguous nature of the standards they might accept, I find no reason whatsoever to say he is not doing a workmanlike job. The guy is around 50, a good age for a ceo imho...but he has got to deliver, that is the deal, everything else doesn't matter...
and for both avxl and SAVA, we are in a bear market that will be getting much worse over the next year.....but in a year or perhaps 2 years, I presume the Larger Market will have been crushed and will have an opportunity to get another perspective on both companies and the biopharma space at that time, its risks, trials, tribulations........It could be out of favor for quite a while and if the rest of the market's bear gets more fearsome, and I hereby guarantee for the "hopers" and calif crazies who visit this board, that it will get much worse, these little spec companies will get further crushed........but both companies are cashed up reasonably well.
both companies are very much worth watching for sure....despite the hardships in the offing.
Sometimes it pays a great deal to keep your fishing line in the water on a dreary dreadful day..
