Blue Dolphin Energy Company (BDCO)

[RealDutch]

Fair Value

Almost forgot, the reason why I started doing all these calculations today is so we can determine fair value when the crack spreads come down again.

So lets's assume a more normal crack spread of 30 longer term. And we'll use 25 for diesel and naphtha because they are not finished products.

Here we go folks.... hold on to something...

Gross profit = 4x [ 300k x (30-15) + 500k x (25-15) + 300k x (25-15) ] = $50M

Then net profit = $40M

Let's not do any taxes for now.

Then fair value = 40 / 14.8 x PE10 = $27/share

(Or $20 after taxes)

Still very respectable. IF crack spreads come down again.