Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[Gator328]

The problem with trying to trade a stock like Anavex, or timing the market, is that Anavex is asymmetrical to the overall market if/when it announces positive data and FDA approval. I’d rather suffer paper losses now than risk not owning any stock when there’s a surprise PR one morning that the FDA has approved the drug for Rett, etc.

Buy and hold is generally accepted the best strategy for people under the age of 50 or 60. Obviously if you’re at or near retirement, following your advice is prudent — but then again those at or near retirement shouldn’t be heavily invested in a company like Anavex.

If it drops to $2.50 or even $5, AVXL will be trading at 2017 prices but with significantly less risk based on the new data results we have since then. While there’s no promise that the FDA will ever approve Anavex’s lead drug, the odds are much better today than in 2017 and I love these sorts of arbitrage scenarios where I can buy at 2017 prices with 2022 information.