NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[ATLnsider]

I keep going back to the basic mathematics that was disclosed by NWBio at ASCO over the weekend. NWBio disclosed that they can initially scale to produce enough DCVax-L to treat 1,000 GBM patients per month.

It looks like the potential annual DCVax-L revenue, just in the UK and the EU, after initial scale-up to 1,000 patients per months, with Flaskworks, will be as folllows:

1,000 Patients per month X 12 months X $200,000 per patient = $2.4 billion in the UK & EU only

My estimate of $2.4 billion in annual revenue, only includes the UK and the EU. DCVax-L production for those countries will be serviced by the Sawston facility through Advent.

I would conservatively estimate at least another 12,000 GBM patients for the US and Canada, that will be serviced by CRL. That would double estimated annual revenue to $4.8 billion per year, just for GBM patients.

According to my research, the average multiple of sales that an acquirer paid to acquire a biotech company that is growing and has high-growth potential (DCVax-L approved in the ROW, DCVax-L to treat other operable solid tumor cancers, DCVax Direct approved to treat inoperable solid tumor cancers, etc.) is 17.5 times sales.

If you apply a conservative multiple of 15 times, you will get an estimated value for NWBO of $72.0 billion. If you divide that by 1.5 billion fully-diluted shares, that equates to a value of $48 per NWBO share. This valuation per share does not include any estimated future revenue for DCVax-L approvals in the rest of the world (ROW), nor does it include any estimated future revenue for DCVax-L and DCVax Direct regulatory approvals to treat other solid tumor cancers, both operable and inoperable.

https://finerva.com/report/biotech-genomics-2022-valuation-multiples/#:~:text=Genomics%20%26%20BioTech%20Valuation%20Multiples,lowest%20level%20in%202%20years.