Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

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NY Gold Futures »» Weekly Summary Analysis
By: Marty Armstrong | June 4, 2022

This market made a new high today after the past 2 trading days. The market opened higher and closed lower. The immediate trading pattern in this market has exceeded the previous session's high intraday reaching 187860. Therefore, this market closed below the opening print while also closing down from the previous closing.

Presently, we have not broken out and it still remains below our uptrend technical resistance projection which stands at 186718.

Clearly, this market is still above the critical support point at this time, which lies at 184103. This market has exceeded intraday 2 of three projected resistance points and it has closed below 2 others. Our underlying pivot providing some support lies at 184364 and a close below this level will warn of a shift to retest support. Presently, the projected extreme resistance stands at 190593.

Additionally, our central point cyclical study models also ended in a bearish mode for the closing warning that the upward momentum is subsiding. Given the fact that we have made a new high and this study just turned down today, caution is advised that this may prove to be a temporary high and a break of today's low of 184970 would tend to confirm that possibility. Furthermore, the short-term Stochastics have also signaled a possible crash is likely. During the last session, we did close above the previous session's Intraday Crash Mode support indicator which was 179250 settling at 187140. The current Crash Mode support for this session was 183580 which we closed above at this time. The Intraday Crash indicator for the next session will be 184364. Remember, opening below this number in the next session will warn that the market may enter an abrupt panic sell-off to the downside. Now we have been holding above this indicator in the current trading session, and it resides lower for the next session. If the market opens above this number and holds above it intraday, then we are consolidating. Prevailing above this session's low will be important to indicate the market is in fact holding. However, a break of this session's low of 184970 and a closing below that will warn of a continued decline remains possible. The Secondary Intraday Crash Mode support lies at 181075 which we are trading above at this time. A breach of this level with a closing below will signal a sharp decline is possible.

Intraday Projected Crash Mode Points
Today...... 183580
Previous... 179250
Tomorrow... 184364

This market has not closed above the previous cyclical high of 186910 while it has exceeded that level intraday. Obviously, it is pushing against this resistance level.

ECONOMIC CONFIDENCE MODEL CORRELATION

Here in NY Gold Futures, we do find that this particular market has correlated with our Economic Confidence Model in the past. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle low to line up with this market was 2015. The Last turning point on the ECM cycle high to line up with this market was 2020 and 2011 and 1996.

MARKET OVERVIEW
NEAR-TERM OUTLOOK

The historical perspective in the NY Gold Futures included a rally from 2015 moving into a major high for 2020, the market has been consolidating since the major high with the last significant reaction low established back in 2015. The market is still holding above last year's low. The last Yearly Reversal to be elected was a Bullish at the close of 2020.

This market remains in a positive position on the weekly to yearly levels of our indicating models.

Looking at the indicating ranges on the Daily level in the NY Gold Futures, this market remains moderately bearish position at this time with the overhead resistance beginning at 185190 and support forming below at 183760. The market is trading closer to the resistance level at this time. An opening above this level in the next session will imply a bounce is unfolding.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of May 30th at 187860, which was up 2 weeks from the low made back during the week of May 16th. So far, this week is trading within last week's range of 187860 to 183020. Nevertheless, the market is still trading downward more toward support than resistance. A closing beneath last week's low would be a technical signal for a correction to retest support.

Looking at this from a broader perspective, this last rally into the week of May 30th reaching 187860 failed to exceed the previous high of 200300 made back during the week of April 18th. That rally amounted to only two typical reaction weeks. Right now, the market is neutral on our weekly Momentum Models warning we have overhead resistance forming and support in the general vacinity of 179720. Resistance is to be found starting at 187090. Looking at this from a wider perspective, this market has been trading up for the past 9 weeks overall.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM OUTLOOK

YEARLY MOMENTUM MODEL INDICATOR

Our Momentum Models are declining at this time with the previous high made 2020 while the last low formed on 2021. However, this market has rallied in price with the last cyclical high formed on 2020 and thus we have a divergence warning that this market is starting to run out of strength on the upside.

Critical support still underlies this market at 175200 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn that a sustainable decline ahead becomes possible. Immediately, the market is trading within last month's trading range in a neutral position.

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