Anavex Life Sciences Corp (AVXL)

[falconer66a]

Download or use an installed spreadsheet program.

"Punch it out on a spreadsheet"--so where to find spreadsheet---no see here !!

For those without a spreadsheet program on their computer, do a web search for “online spreadsheet programs.” Or, see if Excel is already on your computer (or some other spreadsheet).

Then open it; take some time to learn how to do simple arithmetic on the spreadsheet. Collect and enter the data. Here’s how to do it: https://www.lifewire.com/excel-step-by-step-basic-tutorial-3123501

You can start with the list of diseases and conditions listed in the Anavex pipeline. Put each of those in column A. At the bottom, enter the names of any other potential diseases or conditions.

In columns 2 and to the right, enter what you find to be useful info. Number of patients in the US, then in Europe, etc.

Lots of info on page 12, to start with, here: https://www.anavex.com/_files/ugd/79bcf7_02b343eb47da4dfcb7e099f378b3b5f4.pdf

I don’t see any way that I could attach my Excel spreadsheet for Anavex. Even if I could, I wouldn’t post it; far to controversial; numbers “way too high.” “Unsupported conjectures; speculation, even.”

I would suggest that those unable to use a spreadsheet to calculate potential Anavex investment metrics should confine themselves to only currently published Anavex data. If one is unable to do all of the involved arithmetic, any conjectural numbers will be suspect, high or low.

How many, and which diseases? How many will be treated for each? How much will Anavex sell a year’s treatment for each patient. What, then, will be annual revenues for each disease? What percent of those revenues will drop down to be distributed as per-share dividends? With any of the calculated dividends, what would be the range of resulting share prices (the P/E ratio)?

For all of these, count the potential highs and lows, to see the range of possibilities. My calculations indicate that Anavex needs to get approved for just one rare disease to be profitable. If it’s for either of the two biggies, Parkinson’s or Alzheimer’s, lots of digits required; have to widen the revenue and total values columns to show them.