Punch it out on a spreadsheet.
Calculate both the high and low possibilities.
I’ve created a detailed spreadsheet into which I’ve added various ranges of potential Anavex data. One column has a lengthy list of potential diseases and conditions any of the Anavex drugs may eventually treat (or prevent). In the next range of columns the numbers of cases of each disease in various countries and regions of the world. Then, in the next columns potential annual revenues from each of the numerous patients. In the last columns, arithmetic products when the appropriate cells have been multiplied. In the next to last column, resultant AVXL share price calculations. In the last column, the resultant value if my AVXL position for each disease or condition.
I’ve tried to rank the diseases by probability of sales approval, from the ones yielding the lowest annual revenues (such as Rett) on down to those with the biggest annual revenues (prophylactic and anti-aging applications).
In all cases, to get a picture of the ranges of possibilities, I’ve got lowest-possible numbers on up to highest-possible numbers (where such a range could be possible).
Of course, the far-right column calculates the worth of my modest AVXL position for each disease, condition, and application. At the lowest right is the sum-total value.
For those not moderately skilled in spreadsheet creation, none of this has value. But all calculations are elementary arithmetic. Cell A-1 times cell B-1, etc.
And, yes, my spreadsheet lays out numbers in the range of those just posted by JWC3. Far too big to quote here; not believable. I have only a few thousand shares of AVXL, purchased over the years (at an average base price of $2.91), knowing full well that sooner or later Anavex Life Sciences Corp could go bust; that I could lose my entire investment in the company. Diligently, I’ve used only fractions of the discretionary dollars in my budget. If Anavex goes bust, my life is unchanged.
If blarcamesine gets approved for just one or two diseases, the beneficiaries of my estate will be well rewarded. If most or all of the listed diseases and conditions get approved, my estate will have generational wealth, much of which will go to appropriate philanthropies.
