I have seen that Tl... but I think we are getting on the tipping point here. It's a massive number as X says for a 'sunrise business'. I agree with him.
If one truly believed this was going out of business, had no future, etc. that would be one thing. But I can now see the very real danger of being short more clearly. The ultimate question really comes down to this. What's Lightwave worth in say 2 months from now if GFS turns out to be Foundry 'D' and announces a partnership with lightwave to put their polymer slot modulator in the PDK for making optical transceivers? I think it's actually a lot more than most think, and certainly more than I imagined nearly a year ago when Twocents brought it to everyone's attention.
(Someone please correct me if I am not saying this exactly right, I won't be offended). GFS Dresden is making 850K 300mm wafers a year. Not sure on Malta expected production because I can't find that data yet, I don't think it's out. The March 7 GFS release highlights every company Twocents said we would be working with one day: Macom, Ayar Labs, etc. (and it is clear they are saying: 'here are some of the companies we are working with, but not all'). And now we know the April announce by the company of the Fotonix 1.0 PDK was coincidentally delayed just as Dr. Lebby mentioned last Thursday the challenges some foundry partners are finding ('we are resourcing them and talking with them daily')... that's very coincidental if you believe in that... or maybe the only reason a foundry partner hasn't been announced just yet. Also... consider on March 7, GFS was ready to announce the kit, in April they didn't. It might not be long at all that we have to wait...
All to say this: If we wind up being named as the foundry partner with GFS say in June/July/Aug as I expect, being named as the entity enabling the new speeds possible in their PDK, not unreasonable as their language even mimics our own. Their motto is: "GF solutions to move and compute data at speed of light". What's our stock worth then? Let's take a deeper dive...
GFS has detailed this as a 4 Billion revenue annually opportunity by 2026. That's what they see as their slice of the pie... not the size of the pie!! ( Listen to this key quote from GFS on March 7, "These key market trends and implications have catalyzed GF’s focus on groundbreaking semiconductor solutions that harvest the potential of photons, instead of electrons to move data and position GF to continue to be the manufacturing leader in the optical networking module market that is projected to grow at a CAGR of 26% between 2021 and 2026, reaching about USD 4 billion by 2026. Today GF is proud to announce GF Fotonix™, its next generation, widely disruptive silicon photonics platform. GF has active design wins with major customers, significant market share today and expects its growth in this segment to outpace the market."
What would Lightwave receive as a slice of that pie? Just look at 10%. That would be 400 million in revenues from 1 foundry 3-4 years from now. That alone with say an overhead (at say the 50 employees/maturity with an overhead at say 3 mill/month instead of 1.1 mil current with the 19 full time employees now) would mean that 400 million in revenues up against say 40 million in fixed and variable costs. 360 million before taxes... the say 216 mill in net earnings in 2026 ... that's unbelievable! 2 bucks a share net earnings from one foundry and one opportunity... now go ahead and begin to price that out... I mean truly!
Now, I have no idea if we earn 10% or 30% (or more) of that opportunity. I just know that if we did nothing else, NOTHING, we would have a 100 PE or more attached to the company for a revenue opportunity that will be growing way beyond 26% a year. Price that out.
Price that by 2030 the market opportunity for optical transceivers in this segment alone grows from 9B opportunity this year to 30B in 2030 datacenter market ... while fiber comms opportunity grows from 7B in 2022 to roughly 40-60B in the same time period...
Price in the realization that every other partner will want to be in on the race with competing product at the same time.
Factor in that Dr. Lebby has said he doesn't believe in exclusivity and that they (the company and BOD, etc.) absolutely want to build the business out... that was said privately to several at the ASM.
I predict if we see GFS in July Aug as I expect (maybe June even), we see every other partner stomp on the gas pedal...
One validation takes this soaring... oh and 18.4 million will be forced to flock at the same time...
So this first validation will be monumental. And I think it will come sooner than later. And it will be the first of many. That's the point. Other revenues won't increase our costs hardly at all. That's the truly unbelievable part of this business proposition.
That's my extremely, extremely long winded way of saying, this first validation with a partner like GFS takes us quickly to 100 dollars a share and beyond as the investing world quickly learns what Lightwave does for an entire, massive, not going away industry in desperate, desperate need of higher speed at a fraction of the power.
Best to the longs...
F2
AI
