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Friday, 05/27/2022 3:05:02 AM

Friday, May 27, 2022 3:05:02 AM

Post# of 196795
Just to put some rough and back on the envelope value on Lightwave.
indication TAM transceivers 2025 around $100 B of which modulator value depending on application 30 to 90% or say average 60% or TAM B $ 60. Marketshare 10, 20, 50% ? Say 30% or B $18 for Lightwave devices.

Total TAM all semiconductors B $ 600 in 2021. Increasing with 25% per year Say 3% royalty payment for LWLG… B $18…
This chip revenue needs to flow through the foundries first.

Opex for royalty next to nothing? Opex for polymer modulators devices low? May we assume most of this revenue will go to Earnings?
P/E Nvidia ( software and chip design) is 40 roughly. Industry well above 30. Which means potential marketcap for Lightwave 36 Billion times 30 or 40 ( more?) moving above a Trillion marketcap.

Not including other device potential TAMs of B $ 65 or technical assistance revenue in this picture…

Ok. Dreaming? Will it be less or more? Just saying these are the the numbers, the magnitudes we are potentially looking at. Even if you put big question marks on these numbers, I just want you to realize that this share has potentially huge upside.

With roughly 125 million share outstanding, seems to me quite a lot of potential shareholdervalue
In fact if I was a short, I would buy shares now, close my position and go long.
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