I was both encouraged and discouraged by the KM session today. Physically, he looked a little slumped and tired and his suit jacket wasn't the greatest. I think he's been dealt some blows, including that the company was caught by surprise in the first quarter by the rise of the generics and the pressure to lower prices.
I was encouraged by a few nuggets he offered. Now, he's saying the combo pill is a "two to three-year process" whereas he originally flatly said it would take three years. And he said the Combo pill will add three years to exclusivity in Europe. I liked hearing that the partners for countries outside of Europe will likely be Big Pharma companies. We need some mainstream pharma giants associated with Vascepa to lend more credibility to the product. Because doctors don't seem to be boarding Amarin's train yet.
I also liked hearing him say that they are reassessing all kinds of things within the company to ensure that there is a long enough runway of cash for the company to get sales off the ground and reach profitability in Europe and elsewhere. That was a nice counter to the grim statement in the last earnings report that Amarin has enough cash on hand to fund itself for the next fiscal year. That line alone, something the company had never included in an earnings report since Reduce It came out, helped to sink the share value to disturbing lows from which it has not recovered.
It sounds like even after approval is reached in China, we begin a year-long or more negotiation over pricing where he's already saying it won't be as good as in the U.S. or Europe. So it looks like that'll be on the slow track like Canada.
I hate to say it, but it sounds like any serious contribution in sales growth from outside the U.S. won't arrive until 2024, at the earliest. And that might explain why there's almost no interest in the stock right now.
Listening to him also made me question his knowledge of legal issues. And, by extension, it made me question the legal knowledge of Amarin's in-house lawyer or lawyers. He was talking about "obviousness" and why he didn't think generics will challenge the patents on those grounds in other countries. But, my understanding (and I'm no lawyer), is that the whole "obviousness" challenge is a unique and disturbing wrinkle of U.S. law that doesn't exist in other countries.
AI
