There are a lot of moving parts to try and reconcile, but for me, the bottom line is:
1) Can we rely on sufficient low cost energy going forward? Probably not in my opinion.
2) Will the supply chain issues subside? Maybe, but INTC CEO sees the chip shortage continuing into 2024, even as "experts" have been telling us that they can see the end of the shortage. Container flow out of China remains spotty at best adding to manufacturing issues here.
If we do have a substantial recession that brings discretionary demand down that will have some impact on inflation, but the flip side is it will also impact wages, economic growth and savings. I don't see it reducing the cost of energy, unless the economy falls into a severe recession.
We'll all know the answer by the 3rd qtr.
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