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Re: flipper44 post# 476255

Sunday, 05/22/2022 7:34:56 PM

Sunday, May 22, 2022 7:34:56 PM

Post# of 700650
What Ex is saying:


No, it shows 25 actually lived 5 years. That is only 10.8%. To get to 13% they estimated the survival of the LTFU's, many who had been on study only a year or so before being lost.



Is not correct, so don't stand corrected.

You can't just divide the 25 by the 232. Survival at 5 years is really 13% and is calculated by small steps down in the survival curve each time a patient dies (event), according to the number of patients at risk (alive and in the trial) at each time. When there is a censor, what happens is that there is one less at risk from that moment on and that actually makes taller (worse for the survival curve) the next steps down each time a new patient dies. This is because you have a smaller number of patients at risk in the denominator to calculate it.

So specially this is absolutely false:

they estimated the survival of the LTFU's



Nobody did that to get the 13%.
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