Other considerations for discussion from any posters with drilling expertise or sources.
There are finite resources available of the type that Gulfslope will need for drilling the Tau 2 well.
Not only the rig, but one that is Managed Pressure Drilling (MPD) capable. And BOPs of the correct size and pressure. These might be the two most important considerations in the next design plan.
Remember, the Tau 1 had many mechanical issues that caused an additional number of strings of casing to be utilized from the design (8 total). After the final episode, the hole size was just too small and the costs too high to continue with that well.
MPD may well reduce the necessity of installing some of those additional strings of casing and sidetracks. And therefore save much time and drilling dollars.
But by ‘beginning’ with larger hole sizes and larger casing in the first place, the operator reserves the ability to continue drilling to the targets by installing any additional casing strings that are necessary. This option requires the larger size BOP’s and casing at the start.
Next, higher pressures than expected were encountered in Tau 1. So casings with higher working pressures should be planned.
The lessons learned from Tau 1 are we need larger BOPs with higher working pressure at the outset, a larger hole, larger casing with higher pressure capability, and a MPD system. Hopefully that is the plan they are working on.
These options will lower the mechanical risks and the potential overall cost. Mr. Seitz knows this. The only limitations will be the actual drilling budget and the equipment availability.
There cannot be that many BOP stacks of the correct size and working pressure accessible in the GOM. I wonder how many are available for rental at this time? Any time? I just do not have the personal expertise to answer these questions.
Drill pipe of the right size, pressure, weight, type, and amount? It might be hard to get right now too. Same thing for casing and bits. Delivery times?
With only 17 rigs working GOM today, these may not become really serious issues. But say we get to 25 rigs? I would start to worry. Service companies are starting to have difficulty replacing their stock. And inflation is attacking already high prices. Better increase that drilling budget another 25%.
The ‘Breakeven’ on the Tau 2 was forecast to be $20 per barrel. Even if you double that to $40 per barrel the margin is there for vast profit.
Point is, all this takes much planning and coordination with long delivery times for items not readily available. And you cannot buy them on credit.
Although the Tau prospect will not expire until the end of 2025, I have a few concerns regarding the supply chain. We are told that the company is working on the drilling plan. And I trust they are. But these plans do not have an unlimited window of viability. I am sure the plans can be finalized quickly. Financing for partners is most likely the hold up in my opinion.
Sorry. Just rambling. Apologies.
Mrs. Smith
