Followers | 686 |
Posts | 142293 |
Boards Moderated | 35 |
Alias Born | 03/10/2004 |
Saturday, May 21, 2022 6:15:14 PM
By: Avi Gilburt | May 21, 2022
• Following the Elliott Wave analysis:
I have been noting of late that silver has been providing us with the clearest perspective in the metals complex of late, which is why I have been so keenly focused on its movements.
For those following me on Friday, you would remember that I was expecting an imminent bottom in silver, so much so that I even suggested a “lotto-type” trade on the long side in silver Friday morning. But, I was not sure if that rally was going to be a corrective rally in wave 4 within this c-wave of a more expanded wave [2], or if the bottom had been struck, and we were starting the next impulsive rally higher.
I even went so far as marking up an 8-minute chart to identify if the rally off Friday’s expected low was taking shape impulsively or correctively. And, until today, the market was showing us the potential for an impulsive move. Yet, today, the action was taking shape as more of a b-wave pullback within wave 4 than the continuation of an impulsive move up. Of course, it is possible we are developing a 1-2, i-ii off the low, but I will need to let the market prove that to me. And, to be honest, that is a very reasonable count, as we had two VERY nice 5-wave structures develop off last week’s low. But, for now, I am tracking the corrective count until we break out through resistance.
Now, since the .382 retracement of wave 3 is the common expectation for wave 4, which in our case is in the 22.75 region, it also resides just south of the 1.00 extension within the c-wave down, which is also a common target for a 4th wave. So, for now, that is going to be my ideal target zone for a 4th wave bounce.
Since the current move off this week’s high is taking shape as an overlapping corrective structure, I am assuming it is a corrective b-wave within wave 4. So, as long as the support box over 21 holds in silver, I am looking for another rally to be seen in silver it the coming days.
As far as GLD is concerned, it all looks like a big diagonal, so I really have no other reasonable count right now other than a wave iv even with a lower low. So, I am not going to be touching the GLD, as it is likely going to be a tough rally to outline since it will likely be within a 3-wave structures. But, a rally is nonetheless what I expect once this downside has confirmed to be completed.
Now, GDX is kind of a hybrid between GLD and silver. If we do get a 4th and 5th wave in GDX as similar to silver, then GDX can also see a marginally lower low and reset its count as did silver. In that event, I think GDX and silver will likely present us with the best opportunities going forward into the last half of 2022 and into 2023. So, for now, I am going to reserve my opinion on GDX.
In summary, silver has presented us with the clearest chart I am seeing in the metals complex of those that I track. Of course, we may have a 1-2, i-ii off the lows in silver, as we have two REALLY nice 5-wave structures of the lows. But, until silver can at least clear the 23.25 region, I am viewing any further rally as a corrective wave iv.
In the bigger picture, I am again going to be looking for an opportunity to do an aggressive long side trade in silver, or possibly in GDX as well. Once we have a confirmed c-wave completed, I think we will see some amazing opportunities presented in the metals complex in the coming months.
GDXdaily
GLDdaily
silver-8min
Silver-144min
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
• DiscoverGold
Recent GDX News
- YieldMax GDXY Name Change • GlobeNewswire Inc. • 01/25/2024 04:22:00 PM
- Surging S&P 500 Breadth • ValueWalk • 07/19/2023 03:16:37 PM
- S&P 500 Corrects In Breadth • ValueWalk • 07/18/2023 03:08:49 PM
- If The USDX Fell So Much, Why Didn’t Gold Truly Soar? • ValueWalk • 07/17/2023 05:16:20 PM
- USD’s Decline That’s… Bearish For Gold?! • ValueWalk • 07/12/2023 02:38:08 PM
- S&P 500 Late Day Reversal Worry • ValueWalk • 07/10/2023 03:17:34 PM
- Massive Gaming Celebrates Global Launch of House of Blackjack with USDC Earning Race • ValueWalk • 07/10/2023 02:44:17 PM
- Breathers In Mining Stocks Are Not Real Rallies • ValueWalk • 07/06/2023 05:20:55 PM
- S&P 500 Character Changes • ValueWalk • 07/06/2023 03:10:06 PM
- S&P 500 – As Bullish As It Gets • ValueWalk • 07/03/2023 04:01:21 PM
- The Great Gold Migration: How Asia Is Dominating The Global Gold Landscape • ValueWalk • 06/30/2023 05:07:35 PM
- S&P 500 Dip Buying And Tame PCE • ValueWalk • 06/30/2023 03:34:13 PM
- The Bullish Reversal In Gold Is Coming • ValueWalk • 06/29/2023 04:00:44 PM
- Insufficient S&P 500 Rotations • ValueWalk • 06/27/2023 02:41:42 PM
FEATURED POET Wins "Best Optical AI Solution" in 2024 AI Breakthrough Awards Program • Jun 26, 2024 10:09 AM
HealthLynked Promotes Bill Crupi to Chief Operating Officer • HLYK • Jun 26, 2024 8:00 AM
Bantec's Howco Short Term Department of Defense Contract Wins Will Exceed $1,100,000 for the current Quarter • BANT • Jun 25, 2024 10:00 AM
ECGI Holdings Targets $9.7 Billion Equestrian Apparel Market with Allon Brand Launch • ECGI • Jun 25, 2024 8:36 AM
Avant Technologies Addresses Progress on AI Supercomputer-Driven Data Centers • AVAI • Jun 25, 2024 8:00 AM
Green Leaf Innovations, Inc. Expands International Presence with New Partnership in Dubai • GRLF • Jun 24, 2024 8:30 AM