Thrift Savings Plan

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Thanks Frenchee. Chris Ciovacco discussed the signal at length in his latest market commentary. He noted that on Thursday of last week a Demark count pattern of 9 followed by 13 was completed. That has often signaled selling exhaustion and a reversal to the upside in the markets. It was accurate at bottoms in 2011, 2016, 2018, and in the coronavirus bottom in 2020, but that may be overly optimistic. In previous cases there were policy pivots by the Fed or European Central Banks that were made at those bottoms. This time the Fed is not going to pivot to a bullish position – they are committed to continuing rate hikes and balance sheet reductions.

Chris just says keep an open mind to any move. Markets are at critical levels.

My opinion is that with Sentiment, volume-clues, improvements in New-high/new-low data, all suggesting a counter-trend rally, it would not be a surprise to see a rally “lasting several weeks to several months.” As Chris warns, markets may also fail, so Mondays’ action is critical.

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