The Rising Influence of Rising Affluence

[Bluewingcap]

Except we are far less reliant on oil prices then we were in the past. I would not use oil as the primary forward indicator for a recession, although it is a factor.
Powell blew the transitory call, and now that he has been confirmed, he is ready to channel his inner Volcker.
When he says the Fed policy will result in "some pain" he is serious. They will not be pressured into a policy shift until they know they have driven a stake into the heart of inflationary expectations. Quantitative tightening and a lower stock market are two of the ingredients in their plans.The debt markets have done the heavy lifting on interest rates already, but we have not even begun to see quantitative tightening in the system. That begins next month. Why they waited so long is the puzzle.