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Wednesday, May 18, 2022 1:08:31 PM
The Corn & Ethanol Report
By: Dan Flynn | May 18, 2022
• t’s The Economy That’s Challenged.
We start off the day with MBA Mortgage Market Index (13/May), MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (13/May), MBA Purchase Index (13/May),MBA Mortgage Applications (13/May), and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (13/May) at 6;00 A.M., Building Permits (Apr), Housing Starts (Apr), Housing Starts MoM (Apr) and Building Permits MoM (Apr) at 7:30 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 52-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 20-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M. Dairy Products Sales and Milk Production at 2:00 P.M., and Fed Harker Speech at 3:00 P.M.
On the Corn Front we traded lower yesterday as fears about plantings were subsided after Monday’s USDA numbers. Slower than expected corn exports could be offering further resistance, while whispers that corn demand will pick up in the fall. I believe the export market will be larger than has been anticipated at the moment following wheat. If the Ukraine is victorious in this war, they will have a reconstruction phase and expect zero exports in corn and wheat. Also India will not be exporting wheat with a major drought over there and challenges to other wheat exporting countries including the U.S.
Leaving a big void to fill. In the overnight electronic session the July corn is currently trading at 799 which is 1 ¾ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 802 ¼ to 796 ¼.
On the Ethanol Front a new law signed by Governor Kim Reynolds from Iowa that in 2023 new retailers will have to provide E15 and existing retailers by 2026. Smaller retailers with older facilities that would face high costs from offering E15 cab apply for a waiver. We will keep you posted as this story unfolds further. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.
On the Crude Oil Front last night’s API Energy Stocks show draws in crude -2.445M, Cushing -3.072M, gasoline – f.102M while distillates showed builds of +1.075M. What a difference a day makes… The European Union sets out to end Russian energy imports. Germany and other nations part of the 27-nation bloc are still not unanimous in this move because of the global economy and uncertainty. In the overnight electronic session the July crude oil is currently trading at 11168 which is 205 points higher. The treading range has been 11239 to 11002. We will see if the EIA data is close to the API’s.
On the Natural Gas Front the runaway freight train left the station and rocketing to higher prices. If we see any unison with the EU the market will continue to soar as if bullish fundamentals and inflation are fueling this market Tomorrow we have the EIA Natural Gas Storage data. And this market will see more movement heading into the summer driving season which means temperatures will be and in some places already is the use of air-conditioners will rise in the heat. In the overnight electronic session the June natural gas is currently trading at 8.497 which is 0.187 higher. The trading range has been 8.548 to 8.160.
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DiscoverGold
By: Dan Flynn | May 18, 2022
• t’s The Economy That’s Challenged.
We start off the day with MBA Mortgage Market Index (13/May), MBA Mortgage Refinance Index (13/May), MBA Purchase Index (13/May),MBA Mortgage Applications (13/May), and MBA 30-Year Mortgage Rate (13/May) at 6;00 A.M., Building Permits (Apr), Housing Starts (Apr), Housing Starts MoM (Apr) and Building Permits MoM (Apr) at 7:30 A.M., EIA Energy Stocks at 9:30 A.M., 52-Week Bill Auction at 10:30 A.M., 20-Year Bond Auction at 12:00 P.M. Dairy Products Sales and Milk Production at 2:00 P.M., and Fed Harker Speech at 3:00 P.M.
On the Corn Front we traded lower yesterday as fears about plantings were subsided after Monday’s USDA numbers. Slower than expected corn exports could be offering further resistance, while whispers that corn demand will pick up in the fall. I believe the export market will be larger than has been anticipated at the moment following wheat. If the Ukraine is victorious in this war, they will have a reconstruction phase and expect zero exports in corn and wheat. Also India will not be exporting wheat with a major drought over there and challenges to other wheat exporting countries including the U.S.
Leaving a big void to fill. In the overnight electronic session the July corn is currently trading at 799 which is 1 ¾ of a cent lower. The trading range has been 802 ¼ to 796 ¼.
On the Ethanol Front a new law signed by Governor Kim Reynolds from Iowa that in 2023 new retailers will have to provide E15 and existing retailers by 2026. Smaller retailers with older facilities that would face high costs from offering E15 cab apply for a waiver. We will keep you posted as this story unfolds further. There were no trades or open interest in ethanol futures.
On the Crude Oil Front last night’s API Energy Stocks show draws in crude -2.445M, Cushing -3.072M, gasoline – f.102M while distillates showed builds of +1.075M. What a difference a day makes… The European Union sets out to end Russian energy imports. Germany and other nations part of the 27-nation bloc are still not unanimous in this move because of the global economy and uncertainty. In the overnight electronic session the July crude oil is currently trading at 11168 which is 205 points higher. The treading range has been 11239 to 11002. We will see if the EIA data is close to the API’s.
On the Natural Gas Front the runaway freight train left the station and rocketing to higher prices. If we see any unison with the EU the market will continue to soar as if bullish fundamentals and inflation are fueling this market Tomorrow we have the EIA Natural Gas Storage data. And this market will see more movement heading into the summer driving season which means temperatures will be and in some places already is the use of air-conditioners will rise in the heat. In the overnight electronic session the June natural gas is currently trading at 8.497 which is 0.187 higher. The trading range has been 8.548 to 8.160.
Read Full Story »»»
DiscoverGold
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Caveat emptor!
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