I've described exactly what is happening now, but it's just a little more complex fact pattern because of the NYAS presentation which caused people falsely to believe that "TLD has been released". TLD was given to a small set of doctors at an event that allowed for some more people to attend virtually, but it was not released by the company, nor was it published. It was a presentation by a doctor involved at the trial, at a high level, to a small medical conference, and apparently that is not covered by the embargo. The slides and video were bootlegged, understandably so.
What happens when these companies are about to release, I have seen regularly. The price is squeezed as close to zero as possible. This makes shareholders very nervous and shakes loose a lot of shares typically. For the MM's, this is a Godsend. For day traders, they usually want to be out of a position to avoid any capital losses if results do not go positively as ay be expected or hoped for.
But also, for those looking to get in at a much lower price than would be possible had the previous price held, the squeeze is a very valuable part of the process for their successful investment at much, much lower prices. Those day traders however, usually wait until the definitive news is out to start buying again.
This is why most people should not be in such stocks. They misperceive such trading as a judgment on likelihood of success or even a judgment of failure. And there are always posters who lay that on very, very thickly.
I have seen some penny stocks literally go down very close to zero before popping, over the years, on successful news. You can imagine all the stress of shareholders as that happens, it's unbearable.
However, this case is different in one very crucial respect. Intelligent investors know the entire story already. They actively have followed the ups and downs of the trial, they understand the pseudo progression issue for immunotherapies, and how it is even validating of the mechanism of action of the drug. They understand the challenges caused by the crossover. They understand and know that the SAP was updated with all the regulators long before unblinding. They know that the initial reports from Adam Feuerstein are misinformation and they know his history of reporting on the company and that his behavior is par for the course and to have been expected. So many people already know what the end result and publication will say, generally. We don't have every detail, but we have a very good idea of the broad highlights and lowlights.
That's a huge advantage in this stock. People who know what is coming, before it happens are very much empowered in a way that is not typical. It's public information, but the market is simply not that aware, careful or capable of taking in all of that detail at this level, when they can just read the headline from the Adam Feuerstein summary. But soon, there will be a journal article, and given the results, there will likely be other reporting on the trial results. I believe it will be much more positive reporting than the Adam Feuerstein reporting, though his reporting is intended to set a countervailing narrative that no doubt some reporting will touch on, because that is the purpose of his piece. But they will also likely look at the actual facts and journal article, and consider it only in passing.
Adam will likely try to set a trap for Pazdur during his interview at ASCO. Perhaps people should pre-inform some proper authorities of the details here so that they can observe the manipulative behavior themselves. But overall, I believe that there should be good days ahead. That's an amazing place to be in. It's like knowing the future.
All IMHO.
