NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[exwannabe]

Bears are comparing 2 different curves. The interim paper had the survival curve plotted from date of surgery. The survival curve shown in TLD is plotted from date of radomization. They are making a lot of inferences about the difference in the % survival at 36 months.

If you shift the interim curve to the left 3 months and extrapolate the curve from 33 months out to 36 months you will see that there is no difference in the survival at 36 months.

Wrong. I did factor that in

LL presented 28.2% at 36 post surgery in the SNO presentation. Go to the NYAS paper and look to see where it is at 33 months. I admit my eyes suck, so maybe my 24% read was off.. Could be 25% vs 34%, 26% vs 30%. But no way is it 28%. [I will accept Sentimental as an arbiter of that point read if it matters to anybody]. .

Next, the medians are presented as numbers post surgery. 22.4% for treatment vs 23.1% for control. Goven the 2-1 ratio, you could pencil in the control arm at 24.7%.

Not huge wins for control, no argument. But treatment should be doing better than control. A tie with placebo is not considered a win.