Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[HDGabor]

K- (&CaptBeer #377350)

HDG thinks they can make it thru ( operate breakeven ) on the announced cuts so far … at least that’s my read of his posts . Correct if necessary HDG

I do not think that the announced cuts - as an one and only element - can make it. Let's see it ("bottom" up) for Q1 and for the rest of the year (cash only, operating loss … not net loss, since it will be more complicated to include Income tax provision effect):

R&D:
- Q1: 8,602k inc. 7.133k for internal staffing, overhead and other research and development expenses primarily relate to the costs of our personnel employed to manage research, development and regulatory affairs activities and related overhead costs including consulting and other professional fees that are not allocated to specific projects, including costs associated with securing regulatory approvals for VAZKEPA in Europe as achieved in 2021. Also included are costs related to qualifying suppliers, costs related to development of a fixed dose combination product and costs associated with various other investigations, including other costs in collaboration with Mochida and pilot studies regarding VASCEPA.
- Q2-Q4: I do not see any – significant – are which could be reduced. It will fluctuate – as did in the past. Based on Q1 and 2021 seasonality: (avg) 6,654k

G&A:
-Q1: 23,766k (vs 27,610k in Q1 2021, 27,389k avg. in 2021, 24,523k in Q4 2021
- Q2-Q4: I assume (avg.) flat: 23,766k

Selling:
-Q1: 62,252 (vs 66,567k in Q1 2021, 66,619k avg. in 2021, 59,056k in Q4 2021
- Q2-Q4: I do not expect a net decrease – top of the 30,000k as the best – since any additional US decrease will be offset by higher EU: 52,252k

Total OPEX:
Q1: 94,620k
Q2-Q4: (avg.) 82,672k

Operational loss #1:
Q1: -28,307k
OPEX effect: +11,948k
Q2-Q4: (avg.) -16,359k

Gross margin (GM exc. licensing revenue):
Q1: 71,747
Q2-Q4: Q1 GM should be increased by 16,359k to get +/- 0 operational loss, it means – with 75% GM – that the Net Revenue should be (avg.) 117,474k (+23,488k vs Q1). I think – meanwhile part of it out of AMRN’s control – doable, the inventory level at wholesalers has a significant effect.

Cash-flow (Net cash used in operating activities):
Q1: -98,847k
Q2-Q4:
Working capital: +16,239k (exc. inventory, changes in Accounts receivable and Accounts payable and other current liabilities only, as the other elements are not significant). I take WC effect as +/- 0 for FY 2022 as AP+AR.. effect was “always” positive (e.g. 42,437k in 2021 and +9,778k in Q1 2021.
Inventory: +58,746k (My assumption: no purchase other than the contractual commitment)
OPEX: +11,948k
Cash-flow: -11,914k (w/o Revenue / Gross margin change … same revenue as in Q1)

GM should be increased by 11,914k to get +/- 0 operational cash-flow, it means – with 75% GM – that the Net Revenue should be (avg.) 109,872k (+15,886k vs Q1).

Best,
G