NorthWest Biotherapeutics Inc (NWBO)

[mervnng]

Disclaimer: I wrote this myself and it not for the so called "Medical Expert Bashers". I could not stand back just watching the compounding comments from fudsters go by without saying anything. I hope this write up will help NWBO investors who are confused about what to do next as an investor get back on track with a better understanding of the current situation and plan your next steps.

Firstly, it is definitely not what I expected for the stock to fall like that on a Statistical Significant Top Line Data (Statistical Significance means overwhelmingly good results from a statistics perspective).
On the other hand, I would like to point out that the Top Line Data presented is not as straight forward for the layman who hasn't done years over years of analysis on the company and understanding every progress and footstep of NWBO as a company took to get to this point where they are at. That being said, the stock at the current price do not justify the success NWBO has achieved with the phase 3 trial and I believe there are multiple reasons which I will share below:

1. The recent run-up from $1 up to $2 over the last 1.5-2weeks was fueled mainly by Swing Traders and Punters who look for quick gains, when NWBO didn't release the anticipated Data before Tuesday market open, they started selling, creating the 1st wave of downward selling pressure.

2. When NWBO released the data at 11.10am NYT just before the presentation started, the stock did not move, as the data was released in an unconventional way via a Brain Cancer Foundation website instead of directly from NWBO's Press Release page or PR Newswire, which I believe created some confusion amongst IT illiterate investors as well and swing traders, who are usually only in it for a quick buck. This delay in data being able to be analyzed (I am not sure why they had to release it in this manner, but I believe they have a reason for it which I will not try to guess) definitely caused some panic selling in my opinion and creating a 2nd wave of downward selling pressure

3. Another point is that the data presentation was in New York Academy of the Sciences in the US which required people to pay to watch the presentation live. This created a lag in analyzing the data or hearing from the management about the actual explanation of the data. While all this is happening, investors who panic and alongside those swing traders who bought at $1 likely have no clue what is happening. When they have no clue, their natural instinct is to quickly sell and cut-loss, further adding to the 3rd wave of downward selling pressure.

4. You may wonder, how do swing traders or punters who are looking for a quick buck follow a stock? Easy, they follow investment groups on Twitter, Discord Channels, Investment Forums which has upwards of 10,000 to 100,000 of followers who call out stocks to buy and when to sell, all just for a quick profit. Their theory is like, the AMC/GME saga where a bunch of retailer investors each spend $100 - $1,000 on the stock, multiplied by the number of followers doing the same thing, eventually moving the stock. This is definitely something not good for a stock like NWBO because it drives the price up very quickly without basis and comes down equally as quickly without basis, especially when some guy who made a quick 10%-20% is happy with their gains and made a sell call, and everyone follows. I believe this is another major reason that contributed to the 4th wave of downward selling pressure.


5. With the events 1, 2, 3 and 4 above happening simultaneously, which I believe ultimately caused the stock to keep dropping, triggering all the stop losses all the way down to US$0.38 before recovering close to US$1 and then closing at US$0.76 by the end of the day. (This is why, NEVER EVER put stop loss for binary event stock like NWBO, this is a valuable lesson)

To summarize,
The TLD last night has given me EVEN more confident in NWBO and I did not sell a single share. Instead, I added a lot more shares with the given opportunity to buy at a significant discount last night. My reasons are as follows:
1. NWBO’s DCVAX-L Clinical Phase 3 Trial has met all Primary Endpoints with an Excellent Safety Profile, 100x increase in QUALITY of LIFE (I honestly don't even know how to quantify this, but basically no more hair loss, no more bed bound, instead getting treatment while living a normal life with family and friends) and that is all that matters! PERIOD.

2. Comparing with existing treatments, NWBO’s DCVAX-L for NEWLY diagnosed GBM provided a survival tail of:

30% MORE patients on NWBO drug survived up till 36 months
59% MORE patients on NWBO drug survived up till 48 months
128% MORE patients on NWBO drug survived up till 60 months

3. Comparing with existing treatments, NWBO’s DCVAX-L for Recurrent GBM provided a survival tail of:

42% MORE patients on NWBO drug survived up till 6 months
75% MORE patients on NWBO drug survived up till 12 months
100% MORE patients on NWBO drug survived up till 18 months
115% MORE patients on NWBO drug survived up till 24 months
117% MORE patients on NWBO drug survived up till 30 months

4. Points 1,2 and 3 basically highlights that NWBO’s DCVAX-L Phase 3 clinical trial showed a very CLEAR clinically meaningful and STATISTICALLY SIGNIFICANT EXTENSTION of survival. There is nothing more GOLD STANDARD than that for cancer, nothing else except how long in EXTRA MONTHS or YEARS a person gets to live on matters.

5. The Bear argument is talking about a FAILED Trial because the Progression Free Survival (PFS) has not shown any improvement. This is completely NOT TRUE, because PFS have already been taken out as a trial endpoint BECAUSE Chemotherapy and Immunotherapy have a complete different tumor response. In Layman Terms, Chemo shrinks tumor immediately, hence traditional chemo always use tumor shrinkage to measure efficacy.

Immunotherapy on the other hand is the complete opposite, when immunotherapy is working its magic, the tumor actually increase in size, as if it is growing. This is because Dendritic Cell activates hundreds of T Cells and other Anti-Cancer Immune cells around the tumor, causing it to look bigger than before. That said, NO ONE, including FDA, knew that this was how immunotherapy works 17 years ago when this NWBO trial was designed. Hence, when the Top Line Data explained that NWBO trial cannot use Progression Free Survival (PFS, tumor size) as a metric, and also because NWBO Drug didn’t show any benefit for PFS, the bears start jumping and pounding on it as if it was a Primary Endpoint and arguing that NWBO failed its trial.
COMPLETE NONSENSE.

What is next to lookout for
1. NWBO in the past PR’s have already clearly highlighted that when they are ready with Top Line Data, they will release the PR’s in back to back series.
2. Reputable Journal Publication to support the COMPLEX Top Line Data Results, this will call bullshit on all the Bear Arguments that have been raised with no proper basis. (Do note* these bear arguments are formed by NON-MEDICAL Experts, they are investors like us but probably have bad motive to badmouth NWBO for personal gains, eg. Paid bloggers to talk down a company)
3. Updates on Flaskworks (Automation of Manufacturing)
4. Biological Licensing Application (BLA) to FDA, MHRA, and other country’s healthcare authority (I think MHRA will be the fastest to move forward)
5. Partnership or Buyout offers in the process of the above

Conclusion
I am definitely upset looking at my P&L get wiped off minute after minute in real time. However, upon doing a deeper review of the TLD results, discussions with my sources and verification with other veteran investors. Based on my findings and understanding of the achievements by NWBO, I am even more convinced on NWBO being approved by FDA and potentially being bought out and being offered as an alternative to Chemotherapy in the near future. Also, I strongly believe the stock currently is HUGELY mis-priced (undervalued) and I truly believe we will not stay in this range once the TLD becomes understood by the general market and investors.
Thank you for reading until this point and I hope this summary have given you a better picture of the current situation. May NWBO force be with you!

Link to the actual video Presentation can be found here: