Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

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Sarissa’s average cost is $4.62.

If they increase or decrease their position by more than 1%, they have to file within 2 days. Had they gotten out, me thinks they would have sold asap as in wed to salvage any loss. No filing as of Friday.

Let’s get back to why they bought AMRN in the first place. It was not because of existing mgmt. Moreover, this past week’s decline likely further confirms their feeling this drug needs to be in the hands of a BP. Denner has a lot of contacts. Im sure he asked around prior to his initial purchases of what he thought AMRN could be worth to a suitor in addition to running his own DCF. Go back and listen to his podcast interview with Cowen. At the 30 minute mark he says he aims for at least a 2x on his investments for them to be worthwhile. The stock is in the $1s but BP is not buying this in the $4s. Denner’s average cost is in the $4s. Even at $10 this is still $4bn and change. Chump change for a BP and you get Amarin’s 10 year exclusivity in Europe and the USA mess is a free call option.

The drop this week while painful may be the blessing in disguise: accelerates this getting taken out by a BP.

Buffett always says be greedy when others are fearful and fearful when others are greedy. There is a lot of fear now. Conversely there was a lot of greed post the adcom approval.

Just my two cents.