Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[HDGabor]

K-

Not sure why you're so fixated on Sweden

Fixated? Sweden is the first - and only one - country to sign a national reimbursement deal for Vazkepa. What else could be used as a reference for national reimbursement in other members countries?

BERLIN, March 30 (Reuters) - The German government's council of economic advisers more than halved its growth forecast for Europe's largest economy on Wednesday and flagged a "substantial" recession risk as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine.

The advisers, whose forecasts guide the German government in setting fiscal policy, cut their 2022 economic growth forecast to 1.8% from 4.6%, adding output would not reach its pre-pandemic level before the third quarter of the year.

Well ...BERLIN, April 22 (Reuters) The German government will cut its growth forecast for Europe's biggest economy for 2022 to 2.2% from 3.6% amid the war in Ukraine, a government source told Reuters on Friday. It expects growth to pick up slightly to 2.5% in 2023, the source said.

Last I looked Sweden was expecting to still grow by 3% this year

Yes, but see the total picture.

22 December 2021: The Ministry of Finance expects GDP to grow by 3.4 per cent in 2022 and by 1.4 per cent in 2023
01 April 2022: The Swedish economy is expected to grow by 3.1 per cent this year, a downward revision of 0.3 percentage points compared with the previous forecast.

as of end of 2023 (2021 = 100%)
Germany: +4.76%
Sweden: +4.54%

The new WAC to be agreed on this year between Germany and AMRIN will IMHO be significantly lower than what AMRN currently receives ...

(i) no agreed WAC exist ... WAC was determined by Amarin alone. So the agreed WAC will not "new" but the first agreed.
(ii) current WAC is irrelevant as - basically - it is on paper only ... I am not aware of any real revenue from Germany ... if any, it is a rounding difference (and the margin could be zero ...)
(iii) If it is correct the current WAC is € 200 ($222) per month with interim reimbursement ... the requested new WAC is € 253.15. Do not forget: the current WAC is "equal" with out of pocket, meanwhile the new out of pocket will be € "10"

so how does that not affect margins for at least that market ...

Nice try ... but nobody / nothing in the universe read , interpret your statement

The UK / EU will demand AMRN lower their WAC cost to gain access to these markets
This will mean lower margins ….

as margin in Germany and not as the overall - Amarin - margin

AMRN appears to be increasing rebates in the US which will also lower margins .

It does not appear, it is existing. 45% of "lives" received increased rebates in Q1 2022 ... and max. 50% is expected. So, - more likely - no significant - further - decrease in margin will occur. Furthermore, higher UK/EU margin will offset the lower US margin, overall margin could be higher than the "old" US margin.

Best,
G