Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[HDGabor]

K-

I expect all these countries will eventually only accept a price below $200 a month

More likely ... however Sweden had / has one of the lowest prices.
2019: Sweden has lower prices than 11 of the countries, higher prices than seven of the countries, and no difference in price compared to one country
2020: Sweden has lower prices than 13 of the countries, higher prices than five of the countries, and no price difference compared with one country
2021: Sweden has lower prices than 14 of the countries, higher prices than five of the countries

Sweden accepted / agreed € 160 (+/- $165 now) ... meanwhile - more likely - the weighted UK / EU price will be higher let say it is the weighted UK / EU price. (aka net price).
The current US net price is sub $130.
The COGS - app. $30 - is the same for the US and the UK/EU.

So how do you think / mean:

The UK / EU will demand AMRN lower their WAC cost to gain access to these markets
This will mean lower margins ….

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It will surprise me if Germany pays a higher price then Sweden given the size of their market and the economic headwinds their economy faces ...

Size: As I know the relative size difference did not change recently (Let me know if I missed something ...). Given the size of their market Germany is paid higher prices:
2019: +30%
2020: +33%
2021: +33%
(FYI: Germany has the highest matching % among analyzed countries: 74% of the selected 4,744 - in Sweden - pharmaceuticals available in Germany also.)

Economic headwinds: I am not aware of any Germany specific headwinds ... Swedish economy faces with Economic headwinds also.
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Re Formularies ...yes I had looked at several ...and looking at the 5 largest in more detail ...I'm only seeing Aetna ( Tier 4 ) and Cigna ( Tier 3 ) with KM's vaunted " exclusivity ".

AMRN has to adjust to the new reality ....insurers will demand and will receive lower prices from AMRN .

Several but not all ... you are seeing only 2 but Amarin has agreed deals that cover the 45% of the "life" on an exclusive basis (they expect 50% as a "roof").

Seriously: Do you challenge the 45% exclusivity based on your googling?

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They need to cut expenses to reduce cash burn

Expenses like? (Please note: US operation generates $200M profit, RSUs and Options are not cash burn).
I agree with "reduce cash burn" primary as inventory usage (instead of additional "goods" purchase. (Please not: inventory is not an expenses it is an "investment".)

Best,
G