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Friday, May 06, 2022 3:52:21 PM
I expect all these countries will eventually only accept a price below $200 a month
2019: Sweden has lower prices than 11 of the countries, higher prices than seven of the countries, and no difference in price compared to one country
2020: Sweden has lower prices than 13 of the countries, higher prices than five of the countries, and no price difference compared with one country
2021: Sweden has lower prices than 14 of the countries, higher prices than five of the countries
Sweden accepted / agreed € 160 (+/- $165 now) ... meanwhile - more likely - the weighted UK / EU price will be higher let say it is the weighted UK / EU price. (aka net price).
The current US net price is sub $130.
The COGS - app. $30 - is the same for the US and the UK/EU.
So how do you think / mean:
The UK / EU will demand AMRN lower their WAC cost to gain access to these markets
This will mean lower margins ….
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It will surprise me if Germany pays a higher price then Sweden given the size of their market and the economic headwinds their economy faces ...
2019: +30%
2020: +33%
2021: +33%
(FYI: Germany has the highest matching % among analyzed countries: 74% of the selected 4,744 - in Sweden - pharmaceuticals available in Germany also.)
Economic headwinds: I am not aware of any Germany specific headwinds ... Swedish economy faces with Economic headwinds also.
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Re Formularies ...yes I had looked at several ...and looking at the 5 largest in more detail ...I'm only seeing Aetna ( Tier 4 ) and Cigna ( Tier 3 ) with KM's vaunted " exclusivity ".
AMRN has to adjust to the new reality ....insurers will demand and will receive lower prices from AMRN .
Seriously: Do you challenge the 45% exclusivity based on your googling?
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They need to cut expenses to reduce cash burn
I agree with "reduce cash burn" primary as inventory usage (instead of additional "goods" purchase. (Please not: inventory is not an expenses it is an "investment".)
Best,
G
Disclosure: I wrote this post myself, and it expresses my own opinions (IMHO). I am not receiving compensation for it.
Notice: This post is not investment advice, and not a recommendation to neither buy nor hold nor sell.
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