Amarin Corp Plc (AMRN)

[CaptBeer]

$AMRN Yesterday we received news that VASCEPA® Net Sales Revenue in Q1-2022 took a 33% haircut over the previous quarter ($141.5m vs. $94.6m). Last week I posted my prediction for NSR showing a range of possible values ($113.9m to $!40.4m). The mean analyst estimates were at $128.1m (as was mine). The actual $94.6m wasn’t within the possible range. It wasn’t even close! Why is that?

It’s because to maintain script growth pricing was cut to compete with the generics. Unfortunately, we received a “Double-Whammy” of Reduced Script Volume (which we already knew about) and the new price cuts. The model I used in my NSR prediction used the 948,827 Total V Scripts X $135.00/Rx to arrive at the $128.1m NSR.

Here’s the historical plot of NSR (X Axis) vs. NSR/Script (Y Axis) for each quarter since Q1-2018. Notice how far off the trend line Q1-2022 plots. The average price/script ($99.73) was almost off the chart.

Looks like my predicting days are over.