Chart which is really what this is all about
If No placebo effect and no time effect on efficacy of V effectiveness then BP 18,464/QALY
If No placebo effect and 10 year loss of treatment effect on discontinuation then BP 21,062/QALY and this is the ERG base case
If No Placebo effect and 5 year loss of treatment effect on discontinuation then BP24,484
If 1.5% Placebo effect and no time effect on discontinuation then BP 19,999/QALY and this is our company base case
If 1.5% Placebo effect and 10 year loss of treatment effect on discontinuation then BP 22,817/QALY
If 1.5% Placebo effect and 5 year loss of treatment effect on discontinuation then BP 26,503
If 3% Placebo effect and no time effect on discontinuation then BP 21,750
If 3% Pacebo effect and 10 year loss of treatment effect on discontinuation then BP 24,821
If 3% Placebo effect and 5 year loss of treatment effect on discontinuation then BP 28,816
If 7% Pacebo effect and no time loss effect on discontinuation then BP 27,900
If 7% Pacebo effect and 10 year loss of treatment effect on discontinuation then BP 31,893 using Amarin's new pricing into the committees preferred box which they used before in their denial of 10 year scale and 7% placebo effect.
If 7% Pacebo effect and 5 year loss of treatment effect then BP 37,019,
If we do not budge on price of vascepa and committee will not budge on 20000 being the cut off then the only model we get approval would be if committee places us in the 1.5% and no lost efficacy with time. If both of us are willing to negotiate then several of the other models can effectively get us moving and the people of UK the medication they need. Hope this helps.
I apologise if I do not respond to questions for a few hours. I need to listen to the CC this morning now and see if the doom and gloom is justified. I have $20,000 sittting there in case the markets tumble or there is an overreaction in price. I can't keep throwing good money after bad but this may be the one open door opportunity over the next few days to substantially price average down for the 2-3 year play until BO becomes a true reality. Take care and good luck to all longs.
