Closed back above support, so for now key support has held. It also left a bullish hammer type candlestick, which is often seen at bottoms.
So the current setup is for a bounce, though how long/how far the bounce goes we'll have to see. Fwiw, I'll probably watch from the sidelines, though it might be worth a trade depending on what happens tomorrow and Wed. I'm still thinking that a test of 3850 happens at some point in the May/June timeframe, so a trade would have to be in and out within a few days/week, or couple weeks.
How the market responds may depend on Powell's forward guidance on Wed. Very little doubt that the June meeting will also be for 1/2 point, but if Powell sounds like a hawkish grizzly bear then the stock market probably breaks support and heads to 4000 and 3840 by the June meeting. If he sounds hawkish but flexible, then a milder response. Per Dudley, the Fed may want the stock market significantly lower to help them quash inflation, so their preferred target may be closer to the 20% bear level (3840). Just a guess though.
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